Wade into Tidal Bay at a juicy 20-1

UP THE ANTE, with Chronicle racing correspondent KEITH McHUGH


THE turf Flat racing season is all but over, so tonight sees the return of the Chronicle’s weekly ante-post column.

During the winter, I will be searching the markets for the best betting value and, with the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby only a couple of days away, what better race to start with than the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Among the entries for the Charlie Hall are Gold Cup hopefuls War Of Attrition, Albertas Run and Air Force One.

For what it’s worth, I don’t expect any of them to win at Wetherby (none are guaranteed to run and the ground will be too lively if any of them do), but each has a prominent place in the betting for the big Cheltenham race in March.

War Of Attrition won the Gold Cup in 2006 when he was at the peak of his powers.

But a defeat of the top handicapper Hedgehunter was hardly brilliant form and the horse’s subsequent lay-off with a leg injury fails to inspire confidence for a repeat performance despite his comeback win in an egg-and-spoon race at Punchestown earlier this month.

War of Attrition is available at 25-1, but the old adage “they never come back from injury” is particularly relevant for a gruelling race like the Gold Cup and I would be amazed if the Irish chaser were to make the frame come March.

Albertas Run and Air Force One have different profiles, however.

They are young chasers with their future before them and both boast a level of form which suggests their anticipated improvement could catapult them into the big league.

The former is an intriguing performer as he rarely wins in taking style but boasts an amazing strike rate over hurdles and fences.

I recommended him at 20-1 in this column for last season’s Royal And SunAlliance Chase and he duly obliged with a typical display of jumping economy and limitless stamina.

Albertas Run cannot be described as brilliant, like the two previous Gold Cup winners Kauto Star and Denman, but he has the happy habit of getting the job done and 20-1 is a perfectly fair price given the doubt surrounding the two Paul Nicholls performers (more of that later).

Air Force One is one of the most hyped young horses in training, mainly due to trainer Charlie Mann’s insistence on shouting about him from the rooftops.

True, he boasts good form, and his romp to victory at Punchestown in the spring was impressive.

But Air Force One was put in his place by Albertas Run at Ascot and Cheltenham last season, making a couple of jumping errors at vital stages.

He may improve as he gets older and victory in the Wetherby race or a handicap at Ascot on Saturday would see his Cheltenham odds of 33-1 cut significantly.

The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury next month is his early-season target and, at this stage of his career, he seems more likely to enjoy success in a big handicap like the Hennessy, rather than in a level-weights contest featuring the best chasers in training.

Denman, a superb winner of the Gold Cup last year, currently trades at 6-4, but that’s a price I could not touch with a bargepole following news of the giant horse’s heart condition.

Trainer Nicholls says the treatment on the gelding has been a success, but Denman won’t be seen until Newbury in February and if anything were to go even slightly wrong there, then a Gold Cup defence would be placed in severe jeopardy.

As for Kauto Star (4-1), I simply believe his best days are behind him.

He was beaten a mile out in last year’s Gold Cup and his subsequent reverse at the hands of the fragile Our Vic at Aintree was a poor effort despite a rare ill-judged ride from Ruby Walsh.

Neptune Collonges (9-1), a stable companion of Denman and Kauto Star, was a fine third in last year’s blue riband but has never won at Cheltenham, so to break his duck in a Gold Cup is surely asking too much.

As you can see, I believe the big guns should be taken on and would not put anyone off Albertas Run or his underrated stable companion Exotic Dancer (33-1), who boasts top-class Cheltenham form and ran a blinder to be second under a big weight at Aintree on Sunday.

However, there is a horse lurking at 20-1 who is clearly the best of last season’s novices and has all the hallmarks of a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen.

Tidal Bay was a gallant second in the Royal And SunAlliance Novices’ Hurdle two seasons ago and followed up by winning the Arkle Chase in breathtaking style last term.

Recent Gold Cups have underlined the necessity for a mix of pace and stamina – not to mention class – and Tidal Bay has ticks against his name in all three categories.

The only slight problem I can see is a possible preference for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, but with the seemingly-invincible Master Minded in that contest, surely connections will opt for a crack at Gold, especially as the Festival’s Ryanair Chase over two miles, five furlongs is second-rate in comparison.

Some firms are going only 12-1 about Tidal Bay for the Gold Cup, but totesport offer a hugely-generous eight points bigger.

Should he get to post, Tidal Bay will be a single-figure price so the ante-post gamble is one which is well worth taking before he runs – and hopefully wins – at Carlisle on Sunday.