Don’t dally – get on D’Allier

SOLVING the puzzle which is Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase is as much an exercise in predicting the weather as deciding which horse is best handicapped to land the £70,000 Haydock feature.

If the forecasters are to be believed and heavy rain arrives, the ground at the Merseyside track will be testing.

With just over 48 hours to go before the big race, I am prepared to give the “met men” the benefit of the doubt so let’s have a quick glance through the possible runners with a view to grabbing that all-important commodity, value.

Roll Along heads the 48-hour entries and is a horse I am interested in.

At 66-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, over a course and distance on ground likely to suit him, he is one of the best outsiders in steeplechasing’s blue riband.

That said, three miles around a sharp Haydock track on rain-softened going would not play to his strengths, so he is reluctantly passed over.

Going down the weights, Monkerhostin needs good ground, Cloudy Lane – admirable performer though he is – is not built to shoulder hefty burdens, and Dear Villez looked in need of extreme distances when fourth in the Hennessy last time.

Of the cluster of higher-weighted horses, Miko De Beauchene strikes me as much the most interesting.

He has a Welsh National and a Red Square Vodka Gold Cup (at this track) on his CV and did not shape like a horse devoid of pace when second to Ballyfitz in the Pertemps Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival.

Stamina is clearly his long suit, however, and any softening of the ground will be in his favour.

Reveillez was a decent novice chaser two years ago but will surely need this run on his reappearance, while Faasel is plain bonkers and Fundamentalist is capable but prone to race-losing errors.

Opera Mundi interests me as the ground should suit and he was fancied for this race a year ago before it was called off because of waterlogging.

That said, he was disappointing when only sixth to Joe Lively on his reappearance at Cheltenham and I would like to hear trainer Paul Nicholls’ reasons for that effort before taking the plunge.

Hennessy, trained like Roll Along by Carl Llewellyn, is interesting after winning a decent novices’ chase at Folkestone.

Stamina seems to be his strong suit, but he is not a definite runner at the time of writing so I can’t recommend you get involved now.

Irish trainer Tony Martin’s runners are always to be feared, but he has entered Hold The Pin, Dun Doire and Newbay Prop so one can only speculate about which of these three will take part - hardly an ideal scenario for ante-post punters.

For the most likely winner, I nominate Kandjar D’Allier, who won over this, his favourite track at the start of November, goes well fresh, acts on any going and has a light weight.

At around 8-1 on Betfair, he is worth an each-way wager.