Oldham will run out of spaces in care homes within five years, says Which?

Research by consumer group Which? has revealed almost nine in 10 council areas across England could experience a shortfall in care home places by 2022 unless urgent action is taken, and Oldham is one of the worst hit nationally and the worst hit in Greater Manchester, with an expected 23 percent shortfall – a lack of 400 beds.

The watchdog’s analysis found 87 percent of councils may not have enough places to meet prospective demand by 2022 as care needs across the country are ‘already at breaking point’.

The care home population is larger than the city of Manchester with 433,000 people in 11,293 care homes – and this figure is set to grow. It is estimated that by 2022, 7.2 million people of the age of 75 will require care.

The analysis found by 2022, there will be an estimated lack of 42,000 beds across England, 10 percent higher than expected. Only 20 of 150 areas nationwide are on track to keep up with likely demand.

Of the 130 that would have to increase provision, 14 areas will have to increase their current number of beds by 25% or more. Bracknell Forest in Berkshire is predicted to be the worst hit area with a shortfall of 53 percent, amounting to 161 beds.

While the figures paint a mostly negative picture, there are a small number of council areas that are likely to see a surplus in the number of care home beds they provide, highlighting how mixed the regional picture is in England.

Bexley is estimated to have 370 more places than anticipated demand by 2022, while spaces in Peterborough, Stoke-on-Trent, Portsmouth and Trafford are also expected to exceed demand by 201, 290, 145 and 155, respectively.

According to research from the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), it can take up to between five and seven years to plan, build and open a new care home, meaning providers are less able to quickly respond to changes in demand.

Councillor Jenny Harrison, Cabinet Member of Social Care and Safeguarding said: “Oldham Council keeps the local provider market under constant review and publishes a Market Position Statement on our website which gives us a comprehensive overview of what we need in Oldham, what challenges we face and how we overcome them to ensure our residents have access to the care they deserve.

"We take into account a range of issues including our vision for adult social care, funding, Oldham’s demographic and population and demand to name a few.

“These factors all help us form our Market Position Statement for both existing and potential providers. We are keen to work with providers to help them shape their business plans to support the needs of the local population. It helps providers to identify potential opportunities and develop services to meet local need and demand.

“Care homes are an important and vital part of the local provider sector, however a key aim is to support people to remain at home for as long as possible. With this in mind we have developed services to support this aim including for example home care, reablement support and the use of sheltered and extra care housing.”

Alex Hayman, Which? Managing Director of Public Markets, said: “It’s heart-breaking that families who have no choice but to move a relative into care then have the additional stress of not knowing if they can find a space in a suitable home that’s close to loved ones.

“It is vital that the Competition and Markets Authority looks at the potentially huge local disparities in provision, which could reach crisis point if nothing is done.”

The research used population projections to determine how many care places will be needed to keep the provision levels for the over-80s at the same level as it is presently. It was then compared to what will be provided by 2022 if pace in the number of places continues to increase.

Izzi Seccombe, Chairman of the Local Government Association’s Community Wellbeing Board, said: “These findings reinforce our warning about the urgent need to reform adult social care and deliver a long-term sustainable solution that delivers a range of high quality care and support for the growing numbers of people who will need it.

“While the £2 billion announced in the Spring Budget for social care was a step in the right direction, it is only one-off funding and social care services still face an annual £2.3 billion funding gap by 2020. But councils need to be given the freedom and flexibility to spend the additional funding for social care in the places where they feel it will be most effective.

“It is absolutely critical that the Government uses the Autumn Budget to bring forward its consultation for social care announced in the Queen’s Speech, and that it works with local government leaders in delivering a long-term sustainable solution for social care. To tackle the problems we face tomorrow, we must start planning today.

“This must address the issue of long-term funding, but it must also create the conditions necessary to ensure the development of the right kind of care and support services, that can meet the demand of an increasing number of adults with care needs.”