The wider opening of schools in Oldham - what is going on?
Date published: 09 June 2020
Whether schools open or not in Oldham is down to the headteachers themselves
Unlike a number of other Local Authorities in the north-west which have declared a definite date for the wider opening of their schools, Oldham Local Authority has delegated that crucial decision to the individual Head Teachers in the borough.
Those other LA’s have chosen either 8th June or 15th June to start opening up, deeming it unsafe to open up before then, but following the latest news on Covid 19 some of these have been delayed even further.
The picture in Oldham is much less clear cut. A number of schools opened up more widely last week from June 1st but the majority have exercised more caution and chosen to start this week.
Sensibly, nearly all the schools are starting with a limited number of pupils and will gradually increase the number as they gain experience on how to manage the situation in the first few weeks.
But why are similar Local Authorities taking such different approaches?
The original argument put forward by the government for wider opening from 1st June was that “the time is now right” – right because the R number (the transmission rate) for Covid 19 had decreased to below 1, which meant that less and less people were being infected. It was also backed up by the claim that the easing of lockdown would be supported by a “world-beating” test and trace system.
While parts of the country have seen the R figure coming down, it has remained persistently high in the north-west of England and one piece of research just come out suggests that it is now higher than 1. This has prompted several local authorities in the north-west to delay the wider opening of schools even further. This week-end several of the Oldham-based Mult-Academy Trusts also made that decision, as have some of the Oldham LA schools, and no doubt others will follow.
We have been told it is not possible to have a R number for Oldham because the dataset is too small to draw a meaningful conclusion. The R number can only be calculated from a larger dataset, such as the north-west region.
The Public Health departments of the local authorities in the north-west are no doubt following the Government’s example and are being “guided by the science”. But if they are all using the same north-west science why are the different Local Authorities coming to different conclusions? Why do some Local Authorities think it is safe for pupils to return to school and some not?
The Oldham Local Authority states that it is taking into account other information alongside the local R number which shows that the rate of infections and deaths in Oldham due to Covid 19 is coming down and is now level with the Greater Manchester average.
On these figures Oldham is in a better position than some GM Local Authorities, particularly those that have made the decision to delay opening up their schools to more pupils.
Therefore it has decided to continue with its present course of action; that is, leaving the crucial decision to each school’s Head Teacher.
But just because Oldham is now “average” compared with the other Local Authorities in Greater Manchester and is in a better position than some of them is not an argument for continuing as normal.
The R number in the north-west is still too high and the Greater Manchester average of those other sets of data is still far higher than the average for England (which by definition of the word average means that there are parts of the country where the figures are even lower). Even with these other mitigating circumstances the risk in Oldham is still too high.
The recent Fenton Report published by Public Health England states that people from ethnic minorities are at a higher risk of dying from Covid 19 than their white counterparts, although this is not clear why. Oldham, with its large BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic) community, faces even more hazards than most.
The delegation of that decision making to the Head Teachers by the Local Authority means that that agonising decision has also been passed on to the parents.
According to reports the take-up of school places at the schools that were open last week was quite low, with many parents still very concerned about sending their offspring back to school. This concern was borne out by the fact that one Oldham primary school which opened up on June 1st was forced to close again the following day.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks, especially as the Government’s world-beating test and trace system has proved to be not so world-beating after all. Head Teachers across Oldham have done a fantastic job in trying to make their schools as safe as possible.
However, no school or employer can guarantee absolute safety. Parents will have to decide for themselves.
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