Go with plan Be

EVER since the weights for Saturday’s Boylesports Gold Cup at Cheltenham were published, Imperial Commander has been a hot favourite.

An impressive winner of last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup over the same course and distance, Imperial Commander’s chance has been boosted by the subsequent easy victory of the runner-up that day, Barber’s Shop.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’s rising star is a best-priced 2-1, but I would be surprised to see him start any shorter on Saturday so those of you who fancy backing him may as well wait until the day of the race with all the insurance that entails.

Imperial Commander is much the most likely winner on Saturday, but there are one or two doubts about him which would make me think twice before taking such a short price in a competitive handicap chase.

Imperial Commander has won on his seasonal reappearance for the last three seasons — including in the Paddy Power — and his subsequent form has tended to dip.

Furthermore, he has risen markedly in the weights and I am not convinced he is sure to appreciate the forecast soft ground this weekend.

So where is the value in the race at this stage?

Well, Silverburn (11-2) is currently trading at twice the price he started at when sixth in the Paddy Power and, as he has a 13lbs pull for a beating of more than 20 lengths and had to survive two serious jumping mistakes on that occasion, he must enter the equation, especially on ground he should appreciate.

Silverburn won Sandown’s Tolworth Hurdle on soft going, but the negatives against him are the in-and-out form of the Paul Nicholls stable and his apparent dislike of Cheltenham, where he has never performed to his best.

Fingeronthepulse (8-1), a winner at the Festival in March, is an interesting contender, but receives only two pounds from Imperial Commander and I am not sure that is enough, despite the booking of in-form jockey Tony McCoy.

upgrade

And the likes of Oslot, Nozic and Il Duce are weighted to the hilt so are readily dismissed.

My Petra (12-1), from the red-hot Nicky Henderson stable, has won at Wetherby over hurdles and Ascot over fences this season and is clearly on the upgrade.

That said, the mare is best suited by a sound surface and conditions could just find her out this weekend, a fear already expressed by her trainer.

The same applies to Paddy Power fifth Three Mirrors (11-1), so the one I am going to recommend each-way is Private Be, who was third in the Paddy Power and gets a 13lbs pull for a beating of just over 13 lengths by Imperial Commander.

A most consistent sort who seems to act on any surface, Private Be looks likely to run his race and must surely get involved at the business end if able to avoid the jumping blemish which almost stopped him in his tracks on his last visit to Cheltenham.

Private Be has since finished a creditable second at Newbury to another well-handicapped Henderson horse in Classic Fiddle, so he is clearly in form and gets into Saturday’s race with a nice racing weight of 10-9.

He is not thrown in by any means, but nothing in this race stands out and I feel 16-1 underestimates his chance.