Pair of aces could dominate Guineas

UP THE ANTE

CHELTENHAM and its magnificent jumps racing is a mere 40 days away and the next few weeks will see some important trials for the major races.

Binocular, Master Minded, Diamond Harry and other leading contenders are likely to go straight to the Festival without another run, but for the likes of Denman, Kasbah Bliss and Cousin Vinny, some questions need to be answered if they are to cement their places at the head of the various markets.

As the next major trials will not be held until Newbury on Saturday week, I thought this might be a good time to take a break from National Hunt racing and have a look at one of the first classic Flat races of the season.

The Stan James 2000 Guineas will be held on May 2 and already millions of pounds in ante-post bets will have been staked.

Finding an edge from a value angle is this column’s aim and I reckon there are two stand-out horses at their respective prices.

More of them later . . . let’s first look at the contenders I am ruling out or consider to be too short in the ante-post lists.

The first of these is Racing Post Trophy winner Crowded House (8-1), who burst into the classic picture with his dazzling victory at Doncaster.

Trainer Brian Meehan thinks the world of him, but has hinted on more than one occasion that the Derby is the main aim for a colt of middle-distance breeding.

I can’t recall a Rainbow Quest colt winning a Guineas and, as Crowded House is not a certain runner at Newmarket, I see no point in going near him at present.

Mastercraftsman (10-1), trained by the peerless Aidan O’Brien, won his first three starts as a juvenile before finishing only fourth to Naaqoos at Longchamp on Arc day.

A battling victory on heavy ground the time before may have taken the edge off him, but Mastercraftsman never struck me as an exceptional colt and I an sure there are one or two superior three-year-olds knocking about at Ballydoyle.

As for Naaqoos, he was quite impressive at Longchamp, but this long-striding colt might find himself in trouble entering the dip at Newmarket and, in any case, French challengers have a moderate record in the Guineas.

Evasive, from the powerful Sir Michael Stoute stable which always has to be feared in the Guineas, won a Group 3 race at Newbury on soft ground in the autumn.

He is a potential improver, but I believe the yard has one a lot better than him.

Arazan (20-1), meanwhile, was backed to beat Mastercraftsman at The Curragh in September, but could finish only third to the O’Brien colt and on that evidence needs to improve dramatically.

That brings me nicely to the two colts I reckon could fight out the finish.

The first, and the most likely winner by some distance, is Rip Van Winkle.

Yes, I know he is only 7-1, but O’Brien’s comments last year clearly indicated he is regarded as some way superior to Mastercraftsman and is the yard’s number one 2000 Guineas contender.

By sire of the moment Galileo, Rip Van Winkle won a Group 3 contest at Leopardstown before being sent off the 6-4 favourite for the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in October.

Held up in a slowly-run race, the O’Brien colt saw very little daylight before it was too late and was allowed to coast home in seventh, beaten barely two lengths.

I have no doubt he is significantly better than he showed on this occasion and O’Brien has since been quite dogmatic in his defence of the colt and his praise for his potential.

As the best trainer of his generation and the handler of top milers such as Hawk Wing, Rock Of Gibraltar, Foostepsinthesand and last year’s Guineas hero, Henrythenavigator, you have to take notice of his views.

As a back-up to my main selection, I can’t resist having a few quid on Stoute’s Zacinto who, I suspect, is much better than stable companion Evasive.

This son of Dansili went to Sandown for his debut with a huge reputation and duly romped home by eight lengths under Ryan Moore.

Zacinto was stepped up in class for his next run in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and although just touched off by another O’Brien colt in Westphalia, the combination of soft ground and a muddling pace did not see him in his best light.

Most of Dansili’s offspring prefer faster ground which Zacinto is likely to get in the Guineas, and my information is that Stoute regards the colt as one of his most promising for a good few years.

I recommended you back him last autumn at 25-1, but for those of you who declined, the 16-1 currently on offer is perfectly fair.