25-1 Duty will go well fresh

UP THE ANTE — Racing: THERE has been a flurry of betting activity on Saturday’s two big races at Ascot.

While a buoyant market for the ultra-competitive Ladbroke Hurdle is hardly surprising, the same cannot be said of the BGC Long Walk Hurdle, bearing in mind the race contains a red-hot 8-15 shot in Big Buck’s.

Let’s concentrate on this contest because I believe there is a horse lurking in it which is hugely overpriced.

Big Buck’s is a worthy favourite following an amazing 2008/9 campaign in which the highlight was victory over Punchestowns in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old returned to action with a fluent dismissal of Lough Derg at Newbury and will obviously take all the beating on Saturday.

But Nicholls has warned that the country’s top staying hurdler may not be totally suited to Ascot, which is sharper than Newbury and is right-handed rather than left.

If he reproduces his best form, Big Buck’s will almost certainly win, but this is a race which features some talented rivals so he is certainly no penalty kick.

Leading the opposition will be Diamond Harry, one of last season’s top novices and a hugely-talented horse who defied top weight to win in sparkling style at Haydock on his reappearance last month.

There is no saying how far he can go at this game, but it is fair to assume he has plenty more to offer.

Diamond Harry is 100-30 and there will be lots of takers at that price, but if you fancy him then you also have to treat Karabak seriously as Alan King’s contender finished in front of Diamond Harry in last season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham yet is trading at around 12-1.

That’s a big each-way price, while Ascot specialist Lough Derg (16-1) and the high-class Whiteoak (20-1) and Fair Along (16-1) must also be considered.

But the one I am going to put up is Sentry Duty, who is 25-1 with Hills and comes from the Nicky Henderson yard which could hardly be in better form.

This horse has won on his seasonal reappearance for the last two seasons so clearly operates best when fresh.

He has also shown a liking for Ascot, having won there twice last season, including when defying 11st 9lb in the Ladbroke.

Go back to February, 2008, and you will see that Sentry Duty gave Celestial Halo three pounds and a seven-length beating (again when fresh) at Doncaster, and we all know about the subsequent achievements of that one.

Having provided what, at first, seems a powerful argument to back him, there are two negatives.

First, Sentry Duty has to prove his stamina for this three-miles, one-furlong race as he has never won beyond two miles over hurdles.

That said, he has won over a mile and six furlongs on the Flat at Newmarket (horses tend to stay much further over hurdles) and Henderson would not be running him in this if he did not believe his stamina would hold out.

Perhaps a bigger concern is Sentry Duty being rated 21 pounds inferior to Big Buck’s. From a handicapping perspective, it is obvious he has to step up and the Nicholls hope underachieve.

However, that is not impossible as my each-way selection always seems to run best first time out, loves Ascot and could well outrun his current handicap mark of 153.

Add in concerns over Big Buck’s handling the track and the huge disparity over their current odds and you have a value each-way bet.

I will be going into the Ladbroke Hurdle in more depth tomorrow night, but Henderson - responsible for three of the last seven winners - is clearly going to be a major player once again given his three runners in the race.

His French import Stravinsky Dance has been the buzz horse in the ante-post market, but 7-1 about him is skinny and his two stable companions, Fairyland and Know The Law, make more appeal at 9s and 10s respectively.