Woods an each-way steal — and in-form Rose is set to bloom
Reporter: Keith McHugh
Date published: 14 July 2010
Sport Betting: PUNTERS, whether they bet on horse racing or general sport, tend to be split into two distinct categories.
First. there are those who pick out their fancy and back them at the best odds they can.
Then there are those like me who prefer to examine markets, try to identify those participants who are overpriced and back them accordingly.
I explain this because this year’s Open Championship betting revolves around Tiger Woods.
Tiger’s self-inflicted wounds have been so well documented that they need no further airing on these pages, but his problems have clearly taken their toll and he is without a win since returning to big-time golf.
Consequently, the odds-layers have been keen to get Woods in their books and, so far, they have reaped a rich harvest.
But what price does Woods have to drift to in order to become value?
Had this tournament been held a couple of years ago, Woods would have been a 6-4 shot. He adores St Andrews, where he won by five shots in 2005 and eight in 2000.
Quite simply, this course is made for Tiger as there are wide fairways which don’t tend to punish his frequent wayward drives and there is a premium on putting - usually one of the strongest aspects of his game.
Pot bunkers can cause problems, but Woods kept out of them over 72 holes at St Andrews last time and he clearly possesses a blueprint for success at the course.
There was another factor in my leaning towards Woods - the generosity of each-way terms offered by some bookmakers.
Boylesports and Paddy Power are going a quarter of the odds for the first SEVEN, while Blue Square are offering a third of the odds for the first SIX.
Many High Street firms are going a quarter of the odds, first five and if you back with these and your man finishes sixth or seventh you have only yourself to blame.
This is where the Woods value kicks in. Blue Square are offering 6-1 about a man who has cantered home in the last two championships at this course and, given their each-way terms, is 2-1 to finish in the first six.
And it’s not as though Woods has been hopeless since his return to golf. Tied fourth in the Masters and US Opens would be seen as sensational for most top golfers.
For me, this is a must bet because the odds are on our side. William Hill today went 7-1 Woods, but their each-way terms are not as appealing.
Next on my betting list is Justin Rose, who has won twice on the US Tour this year, is striking the ball and putting as well as anyone out there and comes into this tournament in the form of his life.
He has shown he can handle links golf in the past and although 22-1 is only fair, I think he has a much better chance than a couple alongside him in the market, such as the injured Lee Westwood and the exciting but error-prone Phil Mickelson.
Rose can be backed in Boylesports’ first-seven market, which means you are getting just under 11-2 for a place. Again, that is too big.
My final bet in the outright market is Angel Cabrera, simply because he is overpriced at a course which should play to his strengths.
The 2009 Masters winner can handle the pressure of a Major, hits the ball for miles - a big plus at St Andrews - and is excellent value at 100-1 with Paddy Power and their seven places.