Against all odds

BRENDAN Rodgers was at Boundary Park again this week, watching as his son Anton sadly missed a penalty against Chesterfield.

Liverpool’s manager will get the chance to plan for another Athletic cup exit, this time at Anfield, if Lee Johnson’s side manage to win the FA Cup second-round replay on Tuesday.

Remarkably, last week’s draw made it three FA Cup competitions in a row in which the Premier League giants have been paired with Athletic.

What are the odds on that? Well, here we go. For a first Liverpool pairing in the 2011-12 season, assuming there are equal chances of winning and losing in rounds one and two, Athletic faced odds of 252-1.

The following campaign, the teams were drawn together in round four. Again, assuming both sides had equal chances of winning and losing earlier ties – ignoring the fact Athletic were rank underdogs at Nottingham Forest, for example – the chance of a pairing at that stage was 496-1.

And for this season, we are back to the same 252-1 figure of two seasons ago (assuming, dangerously, that Mansfield are beaten in the replay).

But for Athletic to be made to face Liverpool three seasons in a row? Using those numbers above multiplied together, I reach the following figure: 31,497,984-1.

A quick internet search reveals that to be a similar chance to finding a yellow-coloured lobster, or for there to be a three-way tie in a greyhound race. You are twice as likely to win the Lotto jackpot with a single ticket!