Walkon solid – but Pipe trio must be respected

Up the Ante

THE introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival has simplified a major puzzle for punters.

With two potential targets for four-year-olds, trainers can opt to take on the big guns in the Triumph or attempt to utilise a favourable handicap mark in the Fred Winter.

This has a knock-on effect for the former race, which used to be a 30-runner cavalry charge that invariably produced a series of hard-luck stories.

swNot any more. Since the inception of the Fred Winter in 2005, the Triumph has been won by form horses Celestial Halo (5-1), Katchit (11-2), Detroit City (7-2) and Penzance (9-1).

The previous three winners went in at 20-1 (twice) and 16-1, so you can see how the nature of the race has changed.

This is very important when considering an ante-post bet on the Triumph as you are looking for a horse which has already displayed good form and will go off as one of the fancied contenders or one which has the potential to stake a late claim and be a single-figure price on the day.

In an earlier column, I suggested Simarian as being a possible winner at 20-1.

But despite trainer Evan Williams’ claims that the horse was improving at a rate of knots, the form book suggests he has gone backwards, so the search for an alternative starts here.

Zaynar (4-1) and Walkon (5-1) are the two horses dominating the market and there is every chance that one of them will win.

Zaynar, a lightly-raced horse on the Flat in France, was heavily backed to make a winning debut and duly obliged, beating Walkon by four lengths.

However, the runner-up conceded seven pounds and has since won well at Chepstow and Cheltenham, while Zaynar made rather heavy weather of scoring again at Ascot, admittedly from a subsequent winner in Amore Mio.

There should be precious little to split Zaynar and Walkon when they race off level weights, but the latter seems to be making the greater strides and, importantly, has Cheltenham experience under his belt.

For the main reason reason than he is a bigger price, I just favour Walkon at this stage.

Starluck, trained by English-based Irishman Alan Fleming, continues to attract plenty of support and is down to 13-2 following fluent successes at Huntingdon, Fakenham and Kempton.

A feature of Starluck’s wins have been his slick hurdling and tactical pace so he must be a threat to the front two in the market.

My worry about this horse is how he will react when stamina becomes an issue as battling up the hill at Cheltenham and beating second-raters on flat tracks are completely different requirements. On balance, his odds are rather mean.

Ebadiyan (10-1) seems to be the best of the Irish on lines through the reliable yardstick Tharawaat, but this is a race the English have dominated recently and I have a strong suspicion that our juvenile hurdlers are superior once again.

David Pipe has three really interesting entries in Master Of Arts, Mr Thriller and Torphichen.

The former beat a useful horse in Copper Bleu on his hurdling debut at Doncaster on Saturday and is clearly useful.

But Master Of Arts (10-1) was a miler on the Flat and there has to be a doubt over his ability to get up the hill at Cheltenham so Aintree in April might be more his thing.

Mr Thriller (33-1) and Torphichen (25-1) are other Pipe performers who could easily be underestimated.

Mr Thriller, useful over timber in France, is unbeaten in two starts in this country and, having routed a decent animal in Stow at Fontwell last time, is entitled to plenty of respect.

A similar remark applies to Torphichen, who was heavily backed before making a winning debut at Ludlow and, as a lightly-raced but capable middle-distance performer on the Flat, can only improve as he gains experience.

The problem with the three Pipe horses is knowing which races they will be aimed at.

It seems Master Of Arts is Triumph-bound, but one or both of the other two could go for the Fred Winter as the trainer shuffles his Festival pack.

To summarise, Walkon is my idea of the most likely winner and I would not put anyone off backing him at 5-1.

However, should Pipe declare his Triumph intentions and Mr Thriller or Torphichen be among his runners, then I suggest you nip in smartly and take the fancy prices on offer.