Vic another Walsh plot

THERE was much dismay among Irish trainers when the weights for this year’s John Smith’s Grand National were unveiled in London yesterday.

Several of our friends from across the water were convinced their contenders were harshly handicapped, not least Mouse Morris, trainer of last season’s Irish National hero, Hear The Echo.

This horse has been laid out for the 2009 Aintree spectacular and would have been high on my list of ante-post possibles but for his trainer’s pessimism.

Indeed, few Irish hopefuls were the subject of positive noises, yet I strongly suspect there is one of their contenders lurking on a handy mark with a huge chance of winning this year’s near-£1m contest.

His name is Southern Vic, he is a 33-1 shot and is trained by arguably the shrewdest man in Ireland, Ted Walsh.

Walsh masterminded the winning 2000 campaign of Papillon and I am willing to bet he has had a long-range plan to repeat the act with Southern Vic who, like Papillon, was a high-class chaser in his younger days but lost his way a little before returning to his best at Aintree.

The comparisons are obvious and Southern Vic’s quiet preparation this season suggests he will be primed to run for his life come National day.

Well supported before falling at the Canal Turn when going well in November’s Becher Chase won by Black Apalachi (15 pounds worse off in the National), Southern Vic has since run a stormer to be third to Mansony in a Grade 2 chase at Navan.

That race, over two and a half miles, was way too short for a horse considered to be a thorough stayer, but it proved Southern Vic is running back into form and should have the pace to lie up in a National.

His fall at Aintree was a blip for he had coped admirably until then and is normally a fluent jumper of fences.

A preference for soft ground is a slight worry given the prospect of dry weather in the spring, but the Aintree course is always well watered these days and a horse of Southern Vic’s class should be able to cope with whatever is thrown at him.

A mark of 143 gets him in to the race on 10-1, but I would be surprised if top weight Exotic Dancer runs and were Madison Du Berlais to have a hard race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he might not show up either.

That means the weights could well rise a few pounds, leaving Southern Vic nicely perched and, in turn, ensuring that several other fancied entries such as Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour and last year’s winner, Comply Or Die – who seems to have lost his way in any case – are left with far too much weight.

In trying to select National horses ante-post, I like to rule out any contender set to carry 11-0 or more, along with those 60th or lower in the handicap.

That leaves us with a nice range of horses to go at and the ones which catch my eye from that lot are State Of Play, Parsons Legacy and Can’t Buy Time.

State Of Play looks extremely well handicapped, having won the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in the autumn, but he is not the biggest and his ability to handle the fences needs to be taken on trust.

State Of Play is not a guaranteed runner, either, according to trainer Evan Williams, but if he does turn up I will be risking a few quid if his current price of 33-1 holds up.

I selected Parsons Legacy ante-post a year ago and his subsequent injury robbed us of a potentially-nice bet after he was well backed following the unveiling of the weights.

Best fresh and considered an ideal Aintree type by Philip Hobbs, Parsons Legacy has as good a chance as most and 40-1 will not last given his reappearance win in a good handicap chase at Newbury.

As for Can’t Buy Time, he hosed up at Sandown recently and is improving rapidly

This seven-year-old reminds me of the same stable’s Clan Royal, who showed huge ability at Aintree without having any luck.

Of course, the horses at the head of the market – such as Butler’s Cabin, a faller at second Bechers when going well last year – have to be respected, but this is a value-orientated column and none of these contenders stand out as being overpriced.

For the more speculative punter, I suggest Hobbs Hill at 66-1. A classy performer last season, he has had his problems since, but he usually jumps well, likes to race prominently and is well weighted off a mark of 147 should trainer Charlie Egerton aim him at the race.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Southern Vic, e.w., 33-1 (general); Parsons Legacy, e.w., 40-1 (general).