KP can fire England to Ashes glory

THE start of the greatest sporting contest of 2009 is only a week away so it’s not surprising that opinions on its outcome are firmly divided.

As England and Australia limber up for the five-Test Ashes series, it’s encouraging that many of our former cricketing stars believe a home triumph is on the cards.

By the same token, it’s hardly a surprise that Aussie pundits - led by Shane Warne - reckon the tourists will come out on top.

Everyone, however, is unanimous in saying it will be a close series, so why the bookies have Australia as such hot favourites at 4-5 is a complete mystery to me.

The Aussies are a team in transition. Having lost matchwinners like Warne, Glenn McGrath, Adam Gilchrist, Matt Hayden and Justin Langer to name but a few, they are nowhere near as powerful and intimidating as they were.

Indeed, the side which came to England in 2005 was hugely superior to this current Aussie outfit - and they lost 2-1.

Admittedly, the hosts are not as strong as four years ago, but they do boast matchwinners with bat and ball and are much more familiar with English conditions than their opponents.
The composition of the current squad suggests England will prepare dry wickets which encourage spin bowling.

The theory is that the Aussies are weak in that department and their left-handed batsmen will be vulnerable to Graeme Swann.

England may well go in with two spinners for the first Test in Cardiff next Wednesday.

The Welsh ground has been a spinner’s paradise so far this season and even though the pitch might not turn too much for the first couple of days, it will surely do so as it dries.

Monty Panesar and Adil Rashid are battling for the second spinner’s place and while experience could tilt it the former’s way, don’t be surprised if Rashid gets the nod as his batting and fielding is hugely superior.

Australia’s main hope lies with their pace attack. Mitchell Johnson is a huge threat, while Brett Lee and Stuart Clark would provide terrific back-up if back to their best.

That’s a big “if”, however, as both have been plagued by injury and one of them may have to give way to rising star Peter Siddle, who bowls an excellent line and length and has a big heart.

Slow bowler Nathan Hauritz is likely to play in most of the Tests, but is just not good enough at this level, hence the pre-series spin tactics being considered by the England camp.

On the batting front, Australia will be looking to young sensation Phillip Hughes to continue the excellent start to his Test career.

I have no doubt he will make a couple of major contributions, but to my mind he is a dasher who will sometimes give his wicket away and expose the middle order to the new ball.

Simon Katich is dogged and determined but has technical issues, while Michael Clarke and Mike Hussey are class acts, but have not been in the best of form, number six Marcus North could hardly score a run in county cricket and all-rounder Shane Watson cannot shake off his thigh injury.

Considering all of the above, there will be huge pressure on captain Ricky Ponting to hold the Australian innings together.

As one of the world’s top batsmen, he is more than capable of doing so, but he did show some mental fragility during the last Ashes series in England and I expect our pace attack to pepper him with short bowling.

While spin will be important to England, the contribution of opening bowlers Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad will be crucial.

Anderson has developed into one of the world’s best bowlers, being able to swing the ball both ways at pace.

Broad is developing all the time and will provide pace and bounce, while the return - touch wood - of Andrew Flintoff is priceless for England.

Flintoff was heroic in 2005 and while his powers have waned, don’t be surprised to see the big Lancastrian give it his all during what could be his last Test series.

If England are to win this series, their batting has to hold up, too.

This is where Australia could make inroads, because at least three of our frontline players have technical issues, particularly Alastair Cook and Paul Collingwood.

However, the fit-again Kevin Pietersen has the tools to tear apart any bowling attack, while a deep batting line-up which could see Flintoff at seven, Broad at eight and Swann at nine is likely to produce enough runs to put the Aussies under pressure.

And so to the betting...

Well, the obvious place to start is to back England at 9-4. But if you are considering doing that and you fancy them to win in Cardiff, then why not also try the 9-2 about the hosts winning the first Test and the series.

Kevin Pietersen is much the most likely top scorer for England and must be backed at 11-4, a remark which applies to 7-2 Ponting in the Aussie market.

You may also wish to couple Pietersen and Ponting in the top run scorers from either side lists, while Pietersen at 8-1 looks a huge price to be player of the series.

With spin high on England’s agenda, Swann could be top wicket-taker at 15-4, while Johnson is so superior to the rest of the Aussie bowlers that 7-4 is a fair price.

Finally, if you fancy a bet on the first Test, get on England at 9-4 unless you snap up the 9-2 double previously mentioned.

The Aussies are 7-5 to win in Cardiff, with the draw at 15-8.


RECOMMENDATIONS: England to win the series, 9-4 (general); England to win the first Test and the series, 9-2 (bet365); Kevin Pietersen to be top England run scorer, 11-4 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, Stan James); Ricky Ponting to be top Australian run scorer, 7-2 (Coral); Graeme Swann to be top England wicket-taker, 15-4 (Blue Square); Mitchell Johnson to be top Australian wicket-taker, 7-4 (Betfred); Pietersen, Ponting to be top series run scorer, 5-1 and 6-1 respectively (Stan James); Pietersen to be player of the series, 8-1 (Sportingbet).