England value to press home advantage

SOME things just don’t make sense. I have been saying for ages that England were overpriced to win this summer’s Ashes series and, here we are, 1-0 up after two Tests.

OK, the Aussies were on the wrong end of some dubious decisions at Lord’s, but England were dominant throughout the second Test and deserve to be favourites to go 2-0 up at Edgbaston this weekend.

So what do the bookies do? They price up the tourists at 21-20 and England at 4-1.

Am I missing something here? Have the Aussies suddenly got Mitchell’s Johnson’s bowling radar sorted or taught Phillip Hughes how to play the short ball?

As I say, there is no logic to this and I would be filling my boots on England were it not for a dodgy weather forecast and a pitch described by the head groundsman as resembling “jelly”.

Obviously, Kevin Pietersen’s absence and continued doubts over Freddie Flintoff have influenced the bookies’ thinking, but KP had done little in the series with the bat and was a liability in the field with his Achilles problem.

Don’t get me wrong, I wish a fit KP was playing in the remainder of the series, but he isn’t and I have no doubt that his replacement, Ian Bell, has the class to prove an adequate substitute.

As for Flintoff, he will do whatever it takes to keep his foot on the Aussies’ throats and the shellshocked look of the baggy greens at Lord’s suggest the last thing they need is another searing blast from Fred.

Australia need to find a way of taking 20 England wickets and selecting only four specialist bowlers, with Johnson spraying it about and spinner Nathan Hauritz looking only average, is not the way to achieve that.

Ben Hilfenhaus is accurate and Peter Siddle huffs and puffs, but these guys are not in the Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie class, so don’t be surprised to see Stuart Clark brought back for the bowling accuracy which skipper Ricky Ponting hopes will give him control.

All-rounder Shane Watson could also return to give the Aussies a more balanced team, but his fitness record is appalling and his ability to stand up to five days of Test cricket must be a worry.

The same can be said of Australia’s fastest bowler, Brett Lee, so when you actually examine the bigger picture, England have fewer problems than their opponents, yet can be backed at twice the price.

With doubts about the weather and a slow pitch likely, the draw is a predictable favourite at 11-10. But I can’t resist that England price and expect the admirable Andrew Strauss to be top home batsman once again, with his Aussie counterpart Ponting - a class above the rest of his fellow countrymen - likely to top the tourists’ scoring charts.

As for the man of the match, don’t be surprised to see Flintoff justify odds of 10-1. Fred is on a roll.


RECOMMENDATIONS: England to win third Test, 4-1 (Sporting Bet); Andrew Strauss to be top England batsman (totesport); Ricky Ponting to be top Australian batsman, 7-2 (Boylesports, Betfred, William Hill).