Denman faces weighty task

Barbers Shop the clear pick for Hennessy at tasty 9-1

RACING: RAIN and more rain. That seems to have been the recurring theme for the current jumps season and the ground which it produces has certainly had a huge effect on the big races so far.

Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup was won by, Tranquil Sea, one of the few horses which appreciated underfoot conditions.

And although our each-way hope, Ballyfitz, made us a profit at the 12-1 recommended, I can’t help feeling his ability to jump fluently was compromised by the ground.

Indeed, ante-post betting can be a risky business given the uncertainty of the weather.

But Newbury’s Hennessy Gold Cup is still nine days away and I have based my selection process on the premise that drier conditions have to come along at some stage and that the horse I plan to recommend will start at much shorter odds given this scenario.

The obvious place to start for the Hennessy is Denman, who is currently trading at 5-1.

This giant horse is built to shoulder big weights and galloped his rivals into submission in this race off a mark of 161 two years ago.

Now he has a handicap perch of 174 and that makes things much more difficult.

Admittedly, he deserves that rise following his sensational victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March of last year, but he was beaten on all three subsequent starts following a heart problem which hindered his training campaign.

The vibes from Ditcheat are that Denman is back to something like his best and has been delighting trainer Paul Nicholls on the gallops.

But he will need to be the equal of his powers in his previous Hennessy – and possibly more – if he is to repeat that triumph on Saturday week.

Denman will have to carry 11-12 on his seasonal reappearance and while Newbury’s galloping track suits him down to the ground, I am not convinced he can give lumps of weight to talented and unexposed rivals.

Top of the list – and by some distance – is Barbers Shop, who I have mentioned in dispatches recently and who gets into this race off a mark of 156.

That means last year’s Gold Cup seventh will have to carry only 10-8 on a course at which he has winning form.

Said to have strengthened since last season, Barbers Shop could be thrown in here and while he has still to prove his stamina for the three and a quarter miles of this race, he has won over three at a stiff track in Sandown and his high cruising speed and sound jumping will surely help him to stay.

Further heavy rain would cause a problem, however. Barbers Shop likes decent ground and continued downpours would compromise his chance.

But that risk is written into the price of 9-1 offered by William Hill, which is perfectly fair.

Others to catch my eye for various reasons are Roll Along (33-1), Cappa Bleu (12-1), Calgary Bay (33-1) and According To Pete (33-1).

And, despite his poor record in big fields, Nicholls’ second string What A Friend has to be of interest given his excellent record when fresh.

He could be a big threat off 10-4, but 6-1 is hardly a gift from the bookies.


RECOMMENDATION: Barbers Shop, ew, 9-1 (William Hill).