Weld star looks a passage to profit

UP THE ANTE:


I ALWAYS enjoy the challenge of trying to find the winners of the big novice hurdles at Cheltenham.

The Triumph has been a particularly-productive contest in recent years, but this week I have been looking at the three other big races for young hurdlers – the Supreme Novices, the Neptune and Albert Bartlett.

Let’s start with the Supreme in which we have hit the crossbar in the last two years with Medermit and Snap Tie, who were both placed at long odds.

This year’s renewal features one of the hottest Festival favourites for years.

Dunguib, the runaway winner of last season’s Champion Bumper, is a monster of a horse who has barely come off the bridle to win both his hurdles races so far.

He is going to take an awful lot of stopping at Cheltenham, but has yet to convince with his hurdling technique and, as such, is short enough at 5-4.

Dunguib will probably start an even shorter price once the Irish millions have poured on him on the morning of the race and, assuming Rite Of Passage - third to him in last year’s bumper - swerves this contest, he ought to get favourite backers off to a winning start.

Rite Of Passage was most impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown on Sunday and is rated a top-notch prospect by master trainer Dermot Weld.

This horse bolted up in the November Handicap on the Flat at the same racecourse and, having shown he can jump hurdles fluently, will be a strong contender in whichever race is selected for him at Cheltenham.

His price for the Supreme ranges from 14-1 to 7s, which strongly suggests to me that he will go for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle over two miles, five furlongs.

Stamina is not considered an issue and the temptation to avoid Dunguib must be overwhelming.

If Rite Of Passage is as good as his connections reckon, the 7-1 currently on offer for the Neptune is not going to last long, so get on now.

As for the three-mile Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, look no further than Shinrock Paddy, who improves as he steps up in trip.

Paul Nolan’s five-year-old won a Grade 2 bumper at Cheltenham last season and his 15-length win over two miles, four furlongs at Navan last time out was awesome.

He will be taking part in the weakest of the three novice hurdles mentioned and 7-1 is a decent price as I don’t fancy his main market rival, Tell Massini, who seems to be a mudlark.

For those wishing to take a punt at bigger prices, the horses I am most interested in at this stage are Bobby Ewing, Peddlers Cross and Some Present.

Bobby Ewing bolted up on his debut at Uttoxeter before finding the ground too taxing at Cheltenham next time.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’s five-year-old bounced back on more suitable ground when beating subsequent Kempton scorer Menorah at Doncaster and is clearly extremely talented.

A sound surface seems vital to this horse and the going seldom gets testing at the Cheltenham Festival these days.

The problem with Bobby Ewing – like Peddlers Cross and Some Present – is knowing which race he will be going for as all three will be given at least two entries.

Bobby Ewing is 25-1 with Victor Chandler for the Neptune and a general 16-1 shot for the Albert Bartlett.

Peddlers Cross is likely to represent value in whichever race is chosen for him simply because he is not from one of the big English or Irish stables.

Donald McCain is quietly building a reputation as a fine young trainer but, from what I have seen of Peddlers Cross, he would be trading at much shorter odds for Cheltenham had he been trained by Nicholls, Mullins or Henderson.

Peddlers Cross looked top-notch when blowing his rivals away at Haydock on Saturday and has yet to taste defeat in four races - a point to point, bumper and two hurdles.

He is an insulting 25-1 with Betfred for the Supreme and 16s with William Hill for the Neptune.

As for Some Present, he has yet to win in three races over hurdles, but last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up has been running on heavy ground over timber and is likely to leave that form behind on a sounder surface.

If he retains the form he showed last season and can sharpen up his jumping, quotes of 25-1 for the Neptune and 40s for the Supreme will look silly.




RECOMMENDATIONS: Rite Of Passage, 7-1, Neptune Novices Hurdle (Betfred, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, William Hill); Shinrock Paddy, 7-1, Albert Bartlett Hurdle (general); Bobby Ewing, Peddlers Cross and Some Present to be backed each-way once their Cheltenham targets are announced.