Quinn hope looks likely for Aintree glory

Up The Ante AT THE Grand National: AT this time every year, I bang on about the folly of backing horses set to carry more than 11 stones in the John Smith’s Grand National.

Statistics don’t lie and they tell you that, in the last 20 runnings of the great Aintree race, only one horse has carried more than that weight to victory.

The horse in question was Hedgehunter in 2005 and he was as big an Aintree specialist as we have seen in recent seasons.

However, I have a feeling that the trends are about to change.

Mon Mome ran away with the National off 11-0 last year and there are a host of top-class horses high in the weights and ready to strut their stuff around Aintree this time round.

What’s more, the most any one of these horses will carry is 11-10 – four pounds less than in the past – and, as the National weights are more compressed than in years gone by, their tasks are far more feasible.

I expect the bottom weight in this year’s race to carry a minimum of 10-5. That could even rise to 10-7 depending on the number of defections, but this situation makes ante-post betting a hazardous affair.

I point this out because the horse I like most has been set to carry 10-6 and there has to be a possibility that, at joint 69 in the weights, he will not get a run as only 40 are allowed to go to post.

Hello Bud, winner of last year’s Scottish National, strikes me as an ideal type for the race and his odds of 50-1 are hugely tempting.

But the price will mean nothing at all if he does not take part, so I am going to hang fire with him at this stage, a remark which also applies to a couple of others I like the look of in The Package (10-7) and Maljimar (10-8).

One horse which will get into the race and fits the below-11 stones criteria is Character Building and John Quinn’s 10-year-old is certainly one for the short list off 10-11.

He has a Hennessy Gold Cup third and Kim Muir Chase victory on his CV and has long been considered the ideal type for this race by some shrewd, judges, not least his trainer.

Quinn ran him over hurdles on his reappearance at Doncaster, presumably to protect his steeplechase handicap mark, but Character Building now heads to the Cheltenham Festival for a repeat attempt at the Kim Muir before going on to Aintree.

At 33-1, this horse represents decent value and could become the first grey to win the National since Nicholas Silver in 1961.

No less than 25 horses have been allocated more than 11 stones in the big race on April 10 and, as many of them are class performers with solid form over the Aintree fences, you can understand why I feel previous weight statistics are about to be rendered meaningless.

Take last year’s race. The winner won off 11st, while the next three home carried 11-6, 11-4 and 11-2.

It is clear, then, that the 25 horses I have alluded to should not be compromised by their weights and that several could be involved in the business end of the race.

But which ones?

Obviously, Mon Mome and Comply Or Die, the last two winners of the race and first and second in that order 12 months ago, have to be afforded maximum respect.

But the handicapper may just have got their measure and I am not sure whether they should be quite so close in the weights to Albertas Run and Madison Du Berlais, who head the handicap off 11-10 and have top-class form to their name.

Madison Du Berlais, winner of the big three-mile chase at the Aintree meeting last season (looked to have Denman beaten when he came down two fences from home), looks particularly interesting at the kind of flat track over which he excels, and 50-1 is an insult for a horse which finished second to Kauto Star in the King George VI Chase two starts ago.

Although he has yet to be confirmed a definite starter, trainer David Pipe seemed keen enough at yesterday’s unveiling of the weights and the price of the horse certainly warrants an each-way bet.

If backed into a corner, I would go along with many judges in nominating Tricky Trickster as the most likely winner, but Paul Nicholls’ improving sort is hardly outstanding value at 12-1 and, in any case, has less chasing experience than most.

There are many, many more with sound prospects, including a whole host of entries from Ireland, but we can’t back everything and, for me, Character Building and Madison Du Berlais have the necessary ability and class to suggest their current prices are too big.


RECOMMENDATIONS: Character Building, each-way, 33-1, (totesport, VC Bet, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill), Madison Du Berlais, each-way, 50-1 (general).