Albertas Run’s 25-1 too big for Ryanair

THE Cheltenham Festival is less than three weeks away and everywhere you look there are short-priced favourites.

Backing the likes of Kauto Star, Master Minded, Dunguib, Big Buck’s, Quevega and Garde Champetre will hardly make punters rich and you can bet your bottom dollar that some of them will be overturned.

Cast your mind back 12 months and remember Binocular, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss - three of the big five as they were described in the build-up to the Festival - being turned over at cramped odds and you must surely conclude that lumping these horses together in multiple bets is a mug’s game.

So much can go wrong in jump racing. Kauto Star and Master Minded have ended up on the floor, Dunguib has hurdling defects, Big Buck’s hits flat spots in his races, Quevega has not run for ages and has to prove her well-being and Garde Champetre must negotiate the cross-country course and the hazards which go with it.

It follows that if there is no value in backing these short-priced horses, then there must be some to be had in opposing them.

In most cases, I suggest you wait until the day of the race and assess the going and trainer form, but in trawling through the various betting markets I have come across a couple of long shots which may well defy their odds big time and could be worth backing ante-post.

The first of them is Albertas Run, who is a daft price at 25-1 for the Ryanair Chase.

Winner of the Royal and SunAlliance Chase two years ago (recommended here at 20-1), Albertas Run clearly acts around Cheltenham and appreciates decent ground.

His stable was out of form when he ran down the field in last year’s Gold Cup, but the Jonjo O’Neill yard has been on fire for the last fortnight and this talented performer ran a solid race to chase home Monets Garden at Ascot on Saturday.

That race was over an extended two and a half miles and the extra furlong and uphill finish of the Ryanair would surely see him in a better light.

Furthermore, Albertas Run has a two-pounds higher handicap mark than Poquelin, the 9-2 favourite for this race, yet is more than five times his price.

There is a chance that Albertas Run will go for the Gold Cup, but he has been campaigned over shorter trips this season, leading me to believe he will head for the Ryanair.

Should he line up, I can’t see him being much bigger than 10-1.

My other long-priced fancy does not boast quite such a convincing profile, but there are grounds for believing he has yet to fulfil his potential.

Cousin Vinny won the Festival Bumper two seasons ago and was by no mean disgraced when fifth to Go Native and Medermit - both strong fancies for this year’s Champion Hurdle - in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old may not have been at his best that day following an unhappy journey from Ireland and, probably feeling the effects of his efforts, was put away for the rest of the season.

Cousin Vinny’s current campaign has not been a smooth one, either.

Sent chasing, he has failed to deliver and was particularly disappointing when only fifth to stable companion Citizen Vic in a Grade 1 event at Leopardstown last time.

Fences and Cousin Vinny don’t seem to mix and I fully expect him to return to the smaller obstacles, with the three-mile World Hurdle the obvious target.

He may not be good enough to beat Big Buck’s - I suspect nothing else will be either - but the step up in trip will surely help and there is no doubt we have yet to see the best of him over timber.

At 33-1 with Ladbrokes, he is simply too big bearing in mind his Cheltenham Festival record and untapped potential.

Like Albertas Run, Cousin Vinny has yet to be confirmed a definite runner, but if you are prepared to take the chance the rewards might be extremely lucrative.

Already recommended for Cheltenham:

Champion Hurdle - Binocular (out for season) 8-1; Zaynar 7-1; Volar La Vedette, e.w., 33-1.

Arkle Chase - Riverside Theatre 10-1.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle - Rite Of Passage 7-1.

Triumph Hurdle - Notus De La Tour 25-1.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle - Shinrock Paddy 7-1.