No surprise if Package stars

A to Z guide to all the runners

My horse-by-horse guide to tomorrow’s Grand National gives each runner a rating from 1 to 5. The higher the number, the better I rates the horse’s chance.

Mr Pointment and Abbeybraney have been declared non–runners, allowing Cerium and Royal Rosa to run in the race.

First–reserve Silver Birch has also been withdrawn, and will instead run in today’s John Smith's Topham Chase.

North Yorkshire trainer Paul Murphy issued a veterinary certificate for Mr Pointment and is to rely upon stablemate Cerium. Howard Johnson has substituted Royal Rosa for Abbeybraney after the latter had not eaten up overnight.



ABBEYBRANEY (2): NOW NON-RUNNER Short on experience and not the most consistent of horses, but can’t be completely written off.

ARBOR SUPREME (3): One of two Willie Mullins contenders and well fancied by some shrewd Irish pundits. Ran a solid trial last time and should give teenager Paul Townend a good spin round.

BACKSTAGE (4): Interesting challenger from the stable successful with Silver Birch in 2007. Warmed up in a hurdle race last time, will be spot-on for this and looks a major player.

BALLYFITZ (2): Extremely capable and, as a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, can deliver on the big occasion. Tends to make serious mistakes, however, and will not be able to repeat those around Aintree.

BALLYHOLLAND (3): Sound jumper who is the dark horse of the Irish challengers. Won the Galway Plate in July and appeals as the type to adapt to Aintree.

BEAT THE BOYS (2): In-and-out performer, but capable on his day and cannot be written off completely. Has his fair share of weight for a horse of his profile.

BIG FELLA THANKS (3): The choice of Ruby Walsh, whose record in this race is superb. Sixth last season, but did make a few mistakes and will need to sharpen up in the jumping department. Obvious chance, but the value on him has long gone and I have a nagging doubt about his toughness for a race of this nature.

BLACK APALACHI (3): Has won a Becher Chase over these fences and was leading and travelling powerfully when falling at Bechers Brook second time round last year. Solid chance.

CAN’T BUY TIME (2): Has been discarded by champion jockey Tony McCoy. Fell at the eighth last season and has stamina doubts, so is readily passed over.

CHARACTER BUILDING (4): Strong-travelling sort bidding to become the first grey to win this race since Nicholas Silver in 1961. Needs to be delivered late by Nina Carberry, the only woman jockey in the race, has long looked the type for the National and could run a huge race.

CLOUDY LANE (2): Thoroughly genuine and consistent performer, but is not the biggest and these fences seem to take their toll on him. Fell at The Chair last year.

COMPLY OR DIE (3): Winner two years ago and second in 2009, course form which affords him plenty of respect once again. Timmy Murphy stays loyal to the horse and it would be foolish to write him off.

CONNA CASTLE (1): From a stable which won this in 2003 with Monty’s Pass, this fellow is not in the same league.

DON’T PUSH IT (2): Talented on his day, this quirky individual could have his enthusiasm rekindled by this challenge. That said, he has his fair share of weight and Tony McCoy will need a lot of luck if he is to break his duck in the race.

DREAM ALLIANCE (2): Won the Welsh National in good style before running a stinker at Haydock last time. Hard to know what to expect, but has never struck me as an Aintree type.

ELLERSLIE GEORGE (2): Has been in good form this season and is a sound jumper. One of the better outsiders.

ERIC’S CHARM (2): Enjoying a new lease of life at the age of 12 with victories in his last two starts. Likes to be up with the pace and generally jumps well, but I would be surprised to see him repel better-fancied rivals on the final circuit.

JOE LIVELY (2): Extremely useful performer at his best, but seems on a downward curve at the age of 11 and has his share of weight. Well fancied by his stable, however.

HELLO BUD (4): Fine jumper who handled the big Aintree obstacles with aplomb on his previous visit to the track. Won last year’s Scottish National, likes decent ground and is excellent each-way value.

FLINTOFF (2): Owned by superstar cricketer Andrew Flintoff, but is not quite as genuine a performer. Has talent when he chooses to use it and may take to these fences.

IRISH RAPTOR (3): Has won over the Aintree fences and his trainer is bullish about his chances. Likely to go well, but I expect his stamina to run out in the long home straight.

KING JOHNS CASTLE (2): Second to Comply Or Die two years ago, but has done little since picking up a serious injury and has surely had his best chance.

MADE IN TAIPAN (2): Competes in decent company in Ireland and has a touch of class. Stamina is a major doubt, but is another with an each-way squeak in a wide-open race.

MADISON DU BERLAIS (3): Classy performer who finished sixth in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Has won on the Mildmay course at Aintree and should run a big race if taking to the fences.

MALJIMAR (4): Genuine and consistent sort who jumps well and has long appealed as the ideal type for this contest. His ability to travel comfortably through a race will stand him in good stead and he represents value at around 33-1.

MON MOME (4): Won in great style at 100-1 last year and as good as ever judged on his staying-on third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Must go on the short list.

MR POINTMENT (2): NOW NON-RUNNER Has good form at the track and is likely to jump round without troubling the principals.

MY WILL (2): Third last season, he has not been in the same form this time round. Likely to get round again without troubling the principals.

NICHE MARKET (4): Tough and genuine stayer who usually jumps well. Won last year’s Irish National and has long looked the type for this race. Greatly respected.

NOZIC (2): Will be ridden by last year’s winning jockey, Liam Treadwell and is no forlorn hope on his best form. Has struggled this season, however.

OLLIE MAGERN (1): Front-running, enthusiastic type who could give his supporters a thrill on the first circuit. Not the force of old, however.

PABLO DU CHARMIL (1): Useful handicap chaser at his best, but all his best form is over much shorter trips. Fell at Cheltenham last time and has much to prove.

PALYPSO DE CREEK (3): Chased home Vic Venturi at this track in November and promises to stay the trip. Decent long-shot.

PIRAYA (1): Bits of form around the minor tracks, but has done nothing to suggest he can win a race like this.

PREISTS LEAP (1): Decent horse in Ireland in the past, but it would take a huge leap of faith to expect him to triumph.

SNOWY MORNING (5): Third to Comply Or Die two years ago, but only ninth last time after stumbling before the second-last fence. In much better form this year and has shaped encouragingly in recent races over trips way too short for him. Well handicapped, he has a great chance for a trainer who won this with Hedgehunter in 2005.

STATE OF PLAY (3): Fourth last year and nicely handicapped for his second crack at the race. Has not run for a while, but goes particularly well fresh and should perform with credit.

THE PACKAGE (4): Progressive performer and neat jumper who ran a fine trial for this when second at the Cheltenham Festival. Not a definite stayer, but shapes as though he will get home and is nicely handicapped.

TRICKY TRICKSTER (4): Ante-post favourite for this before a poor run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A long-distance handicap is more his thing and there is every chance that Ruby Walsh might have made a mistake in choosing not to ride him.

VIC VENTURI (3): Took to the fences when winning the Becher Chase in November and has been aimed at this ever since. Jumps and stays, but could be a shade high in the weights.