Forecast is Snowy all the way

Third time lucky for Mullins ace

ONE of the biggest anomalies in jump racing is the continued lack of Grand National success of champion jockey Tony McCoy and his training counterpart Paul Nicholls.

Both try again in the John's Smith's-sponsored renewal at Aintree tomorrow, but I fear they will leave empty-handed.

McCoy's mount, Don't Push it, does not figure among my leading fancies, while Big Fella Thanks and Tricky Trickster, two top contenders from the Nicholls yard, are vulnerable for different reasons.

Let's start with the Nicholls horses.

Big Fella Thanks, sixth last year and a winner over two and a half miles at Newbury last time, is the hot favourite at 7-1, but that is a stupid price despite the presence in the saddle of Ruby Walsh, who is quite simply the best Aintree jockey I have ever seen.

I am not saying that Big Fella Thanks can't win, but he is not obviously well-weighted with some of the classier types in this race and I am by no means certain he is tough enough or laden with enough stamina to land this great race.

Indeed, I fancy Tricky Trickster more simply because he has winning form over four miles and his defeat of Niche Market – who reopposes tomorrow – at Newbury in February is way in advance of anything Big Fella Thanks has achieved.

Admittedly, Tricky Trickster ran a stinker when a distant ninth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and that leaves a question mark, but he is almost three times the price of his stable companion and has another great Aintree jockey in Barry Geraghty to help him.

As for Don’t Push It, here is a case of a horse possessing lots of ability, but who is either reluctant or unable to display it on the big occasion.

Like McCoy’s other option, Can’t Buy Time, he is up against it given the quality of tomorrow’s opposition.

Niche Market, however, is a solid contender. He won the Irish equivalent last year, usually jumps well and his prominent style of racing should keep him out of trouble.

Mon Mome went off at 100-1 when landing this race last year and as someone who selected him ante-post in 2008, I must admit I watched him win with more than a tinge of regret.

Venetia Williams' 10-year-old has jumped round Aintree twice and ran a great trial when a staying-on third in the Gold Cup.

He has to go well again, but he will also have to cope with a big weight, which might just prove beyond him.

Ireland has a host of strong contenders and I reckon the Emerald Isle have every chance of winning the race.

Black Apalachi, Arbor Supreme, Vic Venturi, Ballyholland and Backstage have all been well backed and are potent challengers, but the stand-out Irish raider in my view is Snowy Morning.

A second to Denman in the 2007 SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival marked this horse as a classy performer and his subsequent third to Comply Or Die in the following year's National was a great effort for one with limited experience over fences. On tomorrow's terms, he is weighted to turn the tables with his conqueror.

Snowy Morning was a shadow of his former self when only ninth last year, but he has bounced right back to form this season even though he has failed to get his head in front.

Second to Tranquil Sea over an inadequate two miles and a furlong at Leopardstown last time, he was previously runner-up to Newmill over two and a half at Navan.

Admittedly, Snowy Morning has not won for some time, but he has been running over trips way short of his best, presumably to sharpen him up and protect his handicap mark for the National.

I recommended him ante-post at 22-1 a fortnight ago, but he is still each-way value at around 16-1 if you choose a bookmaker offering the first five places.

Of the rest, I expect Hello Bud and Maljimar to outrun their odds, The Package and Comply Or Die have obvious chances for David Pipe and John Quinn has long considered Character Building as the ideal type for this race.

King George runner-up Madison Du Berlais is an insulting price at 66-1 and is worth a pound each-way, but it's Snowy Morning for me with Mon Mome, Maljimar and Hello Bud also expected to make their presence felt.

Big-race verdict:

1, Snowy Morning

2, Mon Mome

3, Maljimar

4, Hello Bud


Best long-shot:

Madison Du Berlais