Pair of aces are too big at 33-1

Reporter: KEITH McHUGH
Date published: 17 February 2011


Up The Ante at the Grand National: DON’T PUSH IT has been given every chance of a John Smith’s Grand National repeat by handicapper Phil Smith.

Having carried 11-5 to victory a year ago, with Tony McCoy partnering his first winner of the great race, the 11-year-old is set to carry only five pounds more this time.

But the entries for this year’s contest on April 9 look particularly strong and there are a whole host of potential winners lurking down the weights.

In all honesty, one could name 10 horses and not find the winner, such is the depth of this year’s race.

But, as this is a price-orientated column, I have selected a couple which are likely to run big races at significantly lower prices than their current odds.

The first is Notre Pere, winner of the Welsh National in 2008, and a horse who has been campaigned, without success, at the highest level since that big-race victory.

But those subsequent failures have prompted the handicapper to loosen his grip on this sound jumper and, with only 10-11 to carry at Aintree, this one-time Cheltenham Gold Cup hope is undeniably well handicapped.

I was also impressed with the way in which Notre Pere handled the National fences in the Becher Chase in November.

Despite being badly hampered twice, he came home in fifth under a quiet ride and, providing the ground is not too fast in April, I am sure he will step up markedly on that effort with the extra mile and a quarter sure to suit.

My second selection is Calgary Bay, who fits the bill of being a classy performer with the tactical speed to gain a decent position.

Normally a sound jumper, his best form is on flat tracks such as Aintree, his recent handicap form is fine and 10-10 is an attractive mark for a horse blessed with his talent.

Like Notre Pere, he is overpriced and is sure to be supported during the next few weeks.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Notre Pere, Calgary Bay, e.w, 33-1 (most firms).