Light looks pure gold

BETTING:

BOXING DAY at Kempton is always a great occasion and it is a day’s racing which has a seismic effect on the markets for the big races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Odds for the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle are likely to be greatly affected by the results of the King George VI Chase and Christmas Hurdle.

RSA Chase hopes put their credentials on the line in the Feltham Novices’ Chase and the opening novice event always has an impact on the betting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which kicks off the big Cheltenham meeting in March.

Let’s start with the Gold Cup because there is no doubt reigning champion Long Run’s price will contract should he win the King George. He is currently trading at 5-2 for Cheltenham, but will be nearer 6-4 should he win well at Kempton.

Long Run was not fit when beaten at Haydock on his reappearance, but he was firmly put in his place by Kauto Star and respective King George odds of 11-8 and 4-1 make little sense.

Sure, Kauto will not enjoy such a fitness advantage this time, but he has won the Kempton race four times and has the peerless Ruby Walsh back on board instead of Tony McCoy, who rode him last year.

I think one of these two horses will win – more of that tomorrow – and you don’t have to be a genius to work out where the value lies.

But if you are thinking of getting involved in the Gold Cup betting, my advice is to give Kauto a wide berth. Haydock was his Gold Cup, the King George is Plan B. The Gold Cup would be an afterthought after the afterthought.

My advice for the Gold Cup? Rubi Light, a progressive young Irish chaser who jumps brilliantly, is bang on form and runs again in the Lexus Chase over Christmas. Get on him each-way at 20-1 before he runs and - hopefully - wins over the Festive period and his price collapses.

As for the Champion Hurdle, I am anxious to field against 2-1 favourite and reigning champ Hurricane Fly given his absence from racing so far this season and the evasive replies from trainer Willie Mullins over his wellbeing and reappearance run.

I don’t fancy Grandouet (6-1), while Zarkandar and Spirit Son (10-1) have still to run this term which is a little worrying. So the one to be on ante-post has to be Rock On Ruby, who was just chinned in last season’s Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival and looked suited to the step back to two miles on his reappearance run at Newbury.

There, he gave subsequent Ladbroke Hurdle winner Raya Star 13 pounds and a beating of over 10 lengths.

That form is rock solid and, while Rock On Ruby will need to improve again if he is to get in the Champion Hurdle shake-up, he is progressing at a rate of knots and is each-way value at 16-1.

Those odds will disappear if – as I hope and expect – he beats Binocular and Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle.



RECOMMENDATIONS: Rubi Light, e.w., Cheltenham Gold Cup, 20-1 (general); Rock On Ruby, e.w., Champion Hurdle, 16-1 (general).