Lieutenant to pull rank over rivals

Up The Ante:

THE RSA Chase has a history of throwing up surprise winners.

On numerous occasions, so-called good things have been turned over and only 12 months ago Time For Rupert – nominated as a Cheltenham Festival banker by many pundits – did not even make the frame.

A year earlier, subsequent Gold Cup winner Long Run was beaten into third.

So those of you planning to go wading in for the 11-4 about Grands Crus landing this year’s renewal of the three-mile novices’ contest may wish to think again.

Firstly, Grands Crus has yet to be confirmed a definite runner. Connections are considering a crack at the Gold Cup and, with only Long Run and Kauto Star to fear, that could be the wiser option.

I say that because Grands Crus would be no good thing for the RSA – far from it.

This is traditionally one of the must gruelling races of the Cheltenham Festival and I have lost count of the number of times it has been won by one-paced plodders who have been able to outstay classier rivals thanks to superior stamina and sound jumping.

Grand Crus simply does not strike me as the right type for the race.

A tendency to race keenly on the bridle leads many to believe there is plenty left in the tank.

I don’t see it that way at all. Free runners, no matter how talented, often expend so much energy that there is little left at the end of a stamina test.

One Man readily springs to mind and although you can argue that Grands Crus has enough staying power to be second to Big Buck’s in last year’s World Hurdle, there were many in with a chance rounding the home turn which suggests the pace of the race was slow.

That said, Grands Crus could be the real deal and I have no doubt he will be

top-class over two-and-a-half miles, but I won’t taking a short price about a horse who might not run and even if he does could be vulnerable to stronger stayers.

So what are the alternatives?

Bobs Worth won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over three miles at last year’s Festival and is sure to get the trip.

He was a 12-1 shot for the RSA after his third to Grands Crus at Kempton on Boxing Day and is now 5s. That’s plenty short enough about a horse with limited jumping experience and one whose wind has been operated on in the last few weeks.

Paul Nicholls’ Join Together (10-1) and Silvianaco Conti (12-1) are interesting as the former has winning form at Cheltenham and the latter was closing slightly on Grand Crus at the end of the Kempton race in which he finished second, ahead of Bobs Worth.

But I have a feeling the race will be going to Ireland, as it did last year with Bostons Angel.

There are four strongly-fancied entries from the Emerald Isle, including Last Instalment (8-1), who is unbeaten in three starts over fences and is arguably the leading staying novice in his country.

However, he has still to be confirmed a definite starter, a remark which also applies to Sir Des Champs (12-1).

Bog Warrior (12-1) has a big reputation and won twice over fences before falling last time.

He would be a threat if turning up, but trainer Tony Martin has hinted soft ground is important and he may not get that.

That leaves us with First Lieutenant, who saw off a high-class field, including Champion Hurdle hopes Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well, when winning last season’s Neptune Hurdle at the Festival.

It hasn’t been plain sailing since being switched to fences and he was beaten by Last Instalment on his most recent start.

However, the return to a track at which he excelled last season and, more significantly, the prospect of better ground, makes him the one to be on at 9-1.

The same owner’s Weapons Amnesty completed the Neptune-RSA double a couple of years ago and I expect this fellow to go very close to emulating him.




RECOMMENDATION: First Lieutenant, 9-1 (Blue Square, Paddy Power, Coral).