Long Run to spoil script for Kauto fans

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP PREVIEW:

THE roof will come off the Cheltenham grandstand tomorrow should Kauto Star win the Gold Cup and cap a quite remarkable career.

A third win in the blue riband of steeplechasing would be sufficient to make it a memorable ending for all those connected with the great horse and his army of fans.

But when you bear in mind the doubts over his participation following a heavy fall at home, this is almost film-script material.

And Kauto Star could well do the almost unthinkable.

A CV which includes five King George VI triumphs, two Tingle Creek chases and several other Grade One successes would be well and truly crowned by a third Gold Cup at a track which really does not play to his strengths.

This will be the sixth Gold Cup Kauto Star has run in. Two wins, a second, a fall and last year’s third to Long Run and Denman is a pretty good record.

But flat tracks such as Kempton and Haydock play more to his strengths and I am yet to be convinced he truly stays the three-and-a-quarter miles of the Gold Cup and its stamina-sapping final hill.

The petrol gauge ran on empty up the hill last year, so why should it be any different this time round?

There are two reasons, in my view. Kauto Star seems to be a much better horse this season, a view endorsed by trainer Paul Nicholls.

And the change of tactics which see him race more prominently will be suited to the conditions at Prestbury Park.

Yesterday, horses needed to be handy on the fastish ground and the going will only get quicker as the sun continues to beat down on the racecourse.

Furthermore, fast going will not be ideal for Kauto Star’s main rival, defending champion Long Run, who took a long time to get on top of Kauto Star and Denman last year, but was going further clear at the finish.

If he can lay close enough to Kauto Star coming down the hill, his superior staying power will almost certainly win it for him again.

In the final analysis, I have gone for Long Run on the basis that he has had a smoother preparation for the race.

I can’t see how Kauto Star can be 100-per-cent right mentally following his recent tumble – remember, Nicholls said it took the horse a year to get over his fall in the 2010 Gold Cup – and when you are talking about a race which is so close to call, that could make the difference.

With slight doubts about the big two, there will be each-way support for their rivals.

Burton Port is the obvious one following his reappearance second to Long Run at Newbury, but he was receiving 10 pounds that day and the “bounce” factor - a deterioration in performance following a comeback run - is a worry.

With Synchronised, Diamond Harry and Quel Esprit needing softer ground and Midnight Chase likely to be embroiled in a battle for the lead with Kauto Star, I can see a patiently-ridden Weird Al emerging as a live contender.

Donald McCain’s horses ran really well yesterday and this fellow is a capable performer at his best.

Forget his lamentable effort in the race last year as he returned home with a problem.