Camelot to reign supreme

RACING:

THERE is no such thing as a certainty in the Derby.

The world’s greatest flat race is littered with sob stories over “unbeatable” colts who couldn’t hack it on the day.

Then again, the truly great ones — Sea Bird, Nijinksy, Mill Reef, Shergar and Sea The Stars — all overcame the many obstacles to conquer on Epsom Downs.

This course, and this race, is like no other and a superb three-year-old thoroughbred called Camelot will tomorrow have to show more than just ability if he is to triumph.

Over 100,000 people will be there and equine youngsters have to be able to cope with the noise and atmosphere.

Then there is the unique nature of the switchback track.

The runners have to negotiate the first two furlongs uphill, avoiding pulling too much to save precious energy.

Then it’s the run downhill to Tattenham Corner and its inherent traffic problems which can unsettle even the most talented performers.

Even if able to negotiate these difficulties, the camber up the home straight can unbalance a horse and easily make the difference between glory and failure.

Camelot, winner of the 2000 Guineas, must avoid all the pitfalls if he is to justify the hopes of trainer Aidan O’Brien, his young jockey-son Joseph, and the multi-millionaires of the Coolmore syndicates.

Since winning the Racing Post Trophy as a two-year-old, Camelot has been a hot favourite for tomorrow’s classic.

I believe this is a top-quality colt racing against — by Derby standards — fairly ordinary three-year-olds.

In my book, only the occasion and the nature of the course can beat him.

Would I back him at 4-7? No. Then again, I wouldn’t want to be a bookmaker standing bets, either.




My horse-by-horse guide to the Derby. Ratings are from 1 to 5.

The higher the rating, the better the chance.



ASTROLOGY (4): Beat only three rivals in Chester’s Dee Stakes, but looked seriously talented and is the best each-way value at around 12-1. Could be the one for the forecast with Camelot.

BONFIRE (3): Workmanlike when winning the Dante Stakes — usually a reliable trial for the Derby — at York. His only defeat in three starts was a luckless one and many believe he could be the best of the English runners. Has a slight stamina doubt, however.

CAMELOT (5): This season’s 2000 Guineas winner is out to show he is the real deal. There is talk of Camelot going for the triple crown so if the St Leger is on his agenda then he must surely stay the trip. Actually, he should thrive over it and, with no concerns over his temperament, he looks by far the most likely winner.

CAVALEIRO (1): Well beaten in third in the Lingfield Derby Trial and outclassed on that form.

MAIN SEQUENCE (3): Unbeaten in four starts, including the Lingfield Derby Trial. His bare form is not good enough to trouble the likes of Camelot, but it’s hard to knock a horse with his record.

MICKDAAM (2): Won the Chester Vase in heavy ground, but that race looked a moderate trial and others should be much too quick.

MINIMISE RISK (1): Last of five to Mickdaam at Chester and although tomorrow’s better ground should help, he is a rank outsider.

RUGGED CROSS (2): Promising and improving colt, but needs to step up markedly to serve it up to the O’Brien contingent.

THOUGHT WORTHY (3): Full brother to 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno and a progressive colt who has been well backed this week. Has a bit to find with Imperial Monarch, but his top stable is making the right noises and he could be the leading English challenger.



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