German star to upstage hot favourite

Derby preview:

GERMANY could provide the winner of the Investec Derby tomorrow.

Flat racing in Germany has long been underrated.

But the 2011 Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe victory of Danedream really put the country on the map and some high-profile wins over in Britain have not gone unnoticed, either.

Germany’s representative tomorrow is a bay colt, Chopin, who has won his last two starts by eight lengths and nine lengths.

In a race with question marks over each of the main protagonists, he is worth a punt at around 8-1, given a good draw in stall four and an able jockey in Jamie Spencer.

Of course, hot favourite Dawn Approach will win if he stays the trip.

The champion juvenile and 2,000 Guineas winner has looked awesome and has clear water over his rivals if form is anything to go by.

But there are serious stamina doubts on the dam’s side and when you factor in his price of around even money, he has to be taken on. In my view, he will either win or be unplaced.

Battle Of Marengo and Ruler Of The World look to be the best of Aidan O’Brien’s five runners.

But don’t be surprised if Mars improves significantly following his promising sixth in the Guineas, and I have a feeling Festive Cheer will run a big race at long odds.

French raider Ocovango looks a threat to all and could be the one to chase home Chopin.


Runners Guide

BATTLE OF MARENGO (rating 4 out of 5): Unbeaten colt chosen by stable jockey Joseph O’Brien in preference to four others. Big chance.

CHOPIN (5): Hugely impressive on his last start. Unknown quantity, but has to be respected in a race which poses so many questions.

DAWN APPROACH (4): Brilliant winner of the 2,000 Guineas and will win if he stays the extra four furlongs. That’s a big ‘if’.

FESTIVE CHEER (3): Narrowly beaten in a decent race at Longchamp last time. Looked a stayer there and could outrun odds of 50-1.

FLYING THE FLAG (1): Looks the weakest of the five Aidan O’Brien challengers and is readily passed over.

GALILEO ROCK (1): Decent colt, but unlikely to trouble the best of these judged on his Sandown third.

LIBERTARIAN (3): Won York’s Dante Stakes, which is normally recognised as the best Derby trial. From a small stable and could have been underrated.

MARS (3): Sixth in the 2,000 Guineas on only his second start. Open to improvement and dangerous to dismiss.

MIRSAALE (1): Has won over the course, but takes a massive hike in class. 100-1 for a reason.

OCEAN APPLAUSE (0): Complete no-hoper who, all being well, will not get in the way.

OCOVANGO (4): Dangerous-looking French raider. Has a similar profile to Pour Moi, the winner two years ago, and represents a master trainer.

RULER OF THE WORLD (4): Has been going away from the rest at the finish of his two wins in as many starts. Looks each-way value at 10-1.