Ogilvy an each way steal at tasty 33-1

THE 137th Open Championship, the ninth to be staged at Royal Birkdale's links in Southport, will this weekend provide the world's top golfers with a golden opportunity to lift the famous claret jug.

With the injured Tiger Woods sitting this one out, many will feel that this is their big chance to land an elusive major.

Leading the list of candidates is Sergio Garcia, who came within a whisker of glory at Carnoustie last year, only to see Padraig Harrington snatch the spoils from him in a play-off.

But at current odds of around 12-1, Garcia represents zero value, despite the confidence gained from his victory in the Players Championship at Sawgrass earlier this season.

Harrington is also short in the market and comes into this event on the back of last weekend's successful defence of his Irish PGA crown.

But he is nursing a wrist injury and it's asking an awful lot to win back-to-back Open Championships. His odds (28-1) are not generous bearing in mind his problems, a remark which also applies to Ernie Els (16-1), a once-great player but way past his best, Vijay Singh (35-1), a superb ball-striker but moderate putter, and the mercurial Phil Mickelson (20-1), whose talent is not in question but whose choice of shot, particularly on links courses, is dubious to say the least.

Many of the European stars will see this tournament as one they can win, but that will create its own pressure and, despite the claims of Lee

Westwood (20-1), Justin Rose (33-1) - fourth here as a young amateur 10 years ago - and last weekend's Scottish Open champion Graeme McDowell (45-1), I just don't fancy their chances.

In eight Opens held at Birkdale, there have been five American winners and two Australians, the latter country's Peter Thomson landing the title twice at Southport.

The reason for this anomoly is the nature of the course. Despite its lay-out of heavy rough, sand dunes and bushes, Birkdale is the most target-orientated links course in Britain, which would certainly explain the success of the Americans, who are used to such a style of golf on their own tour.

So in trying to identify the winner of the tournament, which gets under way at 6.30 tomorrow morning, I have looked at in-form Americans and others with a solid record across the water.

First up at 25-1 is Jim Furyk, who comes into this tournament on the back of a recent third in the AT and T National in Maryland.

Joint fourth when the Open was last held at Birkdale in 1998, the straight-hitting Furyk is experienced on links courses, can handle the pressure in majors and is running into form at the right time.

Geoff Ogilvy is my second choice at 33-1 with Hills. The 2007 US Open winner has a fine all-round game, knows what it takes to win a major and has finished in the top 10 in the last three tournaments he has contested.

I feel the Australian is hugely overpriced as he would have been among the top five in the betting had I been compiling a book.

My third and final choice is someone who is not that well known over here, but has been taking the US Tour by storm.

At 23, Anthony Kim has won two US events this season, making him only the second player under 25 (the other is the remarkable Woods) to do so.

He won in Maryland on his last start and although he is a rookie when it comes to links golf, that could be offset by his talent, self-belief and confidence gained by almost unabated success in 2008. He is no 50-1 shot, so help yourselves before the price goes.

One other factor punters should be aware of before parting with their cash is the various concessions granted by the bookmakers.

Paddy Power are going each-way the first seven finishers, but their win prices are not quite so competitive as others. Several firms are going the first six places, while some are sticking at a quarter the odds for the first five. It certainly is worth shopping around before placing a bet.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Jim Furyk, e.w., 25-1 (general), Geoff Ogilvy, e.w., 33-1 (Hills), Anthony Kim, e.w., 50-1 (general).