Tartak a lively Arkle outsider

UP THE ANTE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL SPECIAL

WITH only a few days to go before the start of the Cheltenham Festival, Chronicle racing correspondent KEITH McHUGH has been sifting out the ante-post value for the 26 races at jump racing’s Olympics.

The majority of bookmakers are going non-runner, no-bet on every race and our man has attempted to identify horses with sound each-way chances which could start at significantly shorter prices than they are currently trading at.

Many will not be his final selections next week - for example, Master Minded cannot be opposed in the Queen Mother Champion Chase - but as this is a price-orientated column only a few need to be placed or a couple win to produce a significant profit on the week.

Here are his thoughts on the first two days of the meeting:

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Last year’s Champion Bumper winner Cousin Vinny heads the market at 11-4, but unseated his rider last time and is too short despite his obvious claims.

Torphichen (6-1) sidesteps the Triumph for this, but the price has gone and Kempes (12-1), Medermit (16-1, general) and Copper Bleu (20-1) have each-way prospects, Medermit getting a narrow vote.

Arkle Chase: Tatanen (5-1) will need soft ground to show his best and his form does not stack up anyway.

Calgary Bay (5-1) and Kalahari King (10-1) could fight this out, but Tom George has his stable in peak form and his Tartak (20-1, general) has improved as he has stepped down in trip and could progress enough to make the frame at least.

William Hill Chase: Wichita Lineman (6-1) has been heavily backed in the last few days and is clearly expected to run a big race.

However, Star De Mohaison runs in this in preference to the Gold Cup and, having waited for better ground, should be ready to produce his best. At 12-1 with Bet 365, Stan James and William Hill, he is fair each-way value.

Champion Hurdle: Binocular (13-8) is much the most likely winner, but I can’t back him at cramped odds given he was beaten on his last visit to the track.

His price means others represent each-way inspection, one of them being Snap Tie (40-1, general), who was four and a half lengths behind Binocular in last year’s opener and gets a pull of eight pounds here.

Cross-Country Chase: Garde Champetre (7-2) has taken over from Spotthedifference as the king of the cross-country races and must be respected, a remark which also applies to another Enda Bolger contender, L’Ami (3-1).

One of them will probably win, but their stable companion Freneys Well ran well to be fourth last year, is better off at the weights and 16-1 (general) is fair.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle: Whiteoak (7-2) may attempt to repeat last year’s success, but is also in the Champion Hurdle.

Willie Mullins’ Quevega (7-2) has a huge reputation and is an obvious threat, but Nicky Henderson’s Chomba Womba (7-1) failed to stay the two and a half miles last season and the stable has a live outsider in Carole’s Legacy (14-1, general), who jumps, stays and knows how to battle.

WEDNESDAY

National Hunt Novices’ Chase: Can’t Buy Time (5-1) will be a popular choice, but I feel he could have stamina limitations and am going for Drumconvis (20-1, Ladbrokes), who hails from the shrewd Tony Martin yard, has been aided in his Festival preparation by Ruby Walsh and has all the hallmarks of a stable plot.

Fellow Irish raider Merchent Paddy (16-1) is another to consider.

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle: This normally goes to a fancied horse so top English contenders Diamond Harry and Karabak (4-1) have to be on the short list.

Mad Max (8-1, general) has a verdict over Karabak yet is twice his price and looks the value bet. Top Irish novice Mikael D’Haguenet (6-1) will be a threat to all if given the green light to run.

RSA Novices’ Chase: Cooldine and What A Friend are disputing favouritism at around 5-1 and both have major claims.

The Market Man (16-1) would be a threat if able to bounce back from a disappointing Kempton run, but the most interesting outsider is Killyglen (20-1, general), who has beaten useful rivals on both his starts over fences, is clearly progressive and could be anything.

Queen Mother Champion Chase: A race totally dominated by Master Minded (1-3), who will bolt up if anywhere near his best. Many firms are betting without Master Minded in the race and one horse which appeals is Briareus, who can be backed at 15-2 with Sportingbet.

The firm will pay-out at a quarter of the odds for a place (first three without the favourite) which looks very fair considering Briareus’s two excellent runs at Kempton this season and his 2006 Champion Hurdle sixth.

Coral Cup: Nicky Henderson’s one-time Champion Hurdle hope Aigle D’Or (6-1) has been a springer in the market and will take a lot of beating off 10-8 if top weight Lough Derg stands his ground.

However, stable companion The Polomoche has been crying out for a step up in trip and is worth an each-way nibble at 14-1 with VC Bet, Ladbrokes or William Hill.

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle: Eddie O’Grady’s unexposed Alexander Severus has been backed into favouritism at 6-1, but that is mainly down to the trainer’s reputation for landing a touch.

The English juvenile form looks superior and I have a feeling that Emma Lavelle, who won this last year with Crack Away Jack, could go close again with recent Sandown winner Amore Mio, who is as short as 8-1 in places, but 12-1 with Ladbrokes and Bet365.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Willie Mullins has an awesome record in this race and indicated this week that the best of his large team may be Sicilian Secret, who has been promoted to 4-1 favourite as a result of his comments. Cousin Vinny beat better-fancied Mullins stablemates last year, so don’t be surprised if the same thing happens again.

The best recent form, though, is boasted by another Irish raider, Dunguib (7-1, general), whose trainer Philip Fenton is oozing confidence. Course and distance winner Shinrock Paddy (14-1) is another to consider.

RACES on Thursday and Friday will be covered in tomorrow’s Evening Chronicle.