Get in step with Dancer

KAUTO STAR has achieved many great things during his illustrious career, but winning tomorrow’s totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup on the final day of the Festival would just about top the lot.

No horse has ever won the Gold Cup after losing the title, so Paul Nicholls’ superstar (pictured, right), the winner two years ago but well beaten by stable companion Dernman 12 months later, will have to defy one of jump racing’s most damning statistics if he is to justify favouritism.

He has every chance of doing so, but at current odds of around 9-4 I have to be against him.

Kauto Star’s form this season has been pretty good and he was as impressive as ever when winning the King George VI Chase at Kempton for the third time in a row.

But three miles on a flat, right-handed track are just about this horse’s optimum requirements and Cheltenham’s twists, turns, undulations and stamina-sapping hill tend to take the edge off Kauto’s brilliance.

That was the case when stable companion Denman ran him ragged last year and I have a feeling that something is likely to deny him once again.

Finding that horse is the hard part and I have no inclination to back Denman for a repeat victory after his widely-reported heart problems and lacklustre comeback run at Kempton.

I believe we have seen the best of this giant horse and expect Neptune Collonges to be a more dangerous Nicholls runner.

Third last year, when beaten a whisker by Kauto Star for second, Neptune Collonges has solid form and comes into this race on the back of a fine win in Ireland.

That said, he has not won over fences in four attempts at Cheltenham and such a record hardly inspires confidence.

Jonjo O’Neill also has a strong hand and I really fancy his two representatives, Exotic Dancer and Albertas Run.

The former was second to Kauto Star two years ago and has enjoyed a much better preparation for tomorrow’s race than when finishing a disappointing fifth last year.

He won the Lexus Chase in Ireland on his last start during which Neptunes Collonges tipped up at the second-last fence when still in the lead.

To my mind, Exotic Dancer would have won that race had Neptune not come a cropper, so I feel he is the value bet in tomorrow’s race.

Albertas Run could be a big danger if the ground turns up good as his record under such conditions is impressive, he won last year’s Sun Alliance Chase at the Festival, and stays and jumps well.

Madison Du Berlais, Denman’s conqueror at Kempton, and the Queen’s Barber’s Shop are the other horses I give a chance to, while Star De Mohaison, is no forlorn hope should the rain stay away.

However, it’s Exotic Dancer for me, with his old rival Kauto Star chasing him home.

Some extremely promising juveniles line up for the Triumph Hurdle which opens the card and I reckon Zaynar and Walkon will fight out the finish.

It will be close, and a reverse forecast might be the way to go.

I can pass on a strong word for Cappa Bleu in the Christies Foxhunters Chase, while another fancy is Sunnyhillboy in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle.