Five-star fancies for Aintree

FANS of the Flat will soon be in their element, with the William Hill Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster only nine days away.

But as the Cheltenham Festival remains fresh in the mind and the John Smith’s Grand National is looming large on April 4, the last jumps-orientated Up The Ante for some time concentrates on the world’s greatest steeplechase.

Several high-profile candidates strutted their stuff at Cheltenham, while others have been warming up in England and across the water in Ireland.

Following the defection of Exotic Dancer and Madison Du Berlais, Snoopy Loopy is the new top weight with 11-10, meaning that everything else in the race must carry five pounds more than their original marks.

This will make a huge difference to those previously around the 10-10 and 10-11 categories as they will be required to shoulder 11 stones or more.

That’s not a good thing when you bear in mind that only one of the last 19 winners has successfully overcome that burden and the horse in question was Hedgehunter, an outstanding Aintree performer.

Handicapper Phil Smith argues that every horse in the race will have 10 stones or more – in other words, running off their correct handicap marks rather than with overweight – but every pound counts double around four and a half miles of the National course so once again I will be looking at horses at the lower end of the weights.

We were lucky enough to come up with big-race winner Comply Or Die at this stage last year and David Pipe’s hero of 12 months ago ran a nice prep race at Cheltenham last week.

But the rise in the weights takes him to 11-3 which is outside the criteria outlined, along with My Will, who ran a screamer to be fifth in the Gold Cup and will shoulder 11-1 at Aintree.

Admittedly, he is officially eight pounds well-in following his Cheltenham exploits, but his weight and cramped odds mean there is better value to be had elsewhere.

As a starting point in looking at yesterday’s list of declarations, I have focused on those horses likely to make the 40-runner cut yet will carry less than 11 stones.

And the ones who stand out are my original fancies Southern Vic and Parson’s Legacy, along with Rambling Minster, Big Fella Thanks and Character Building.

The first two named have been studied in detail in an earlier column and can be backed at 25-1 and 40-1 respectively.

As Southern Vic (10st 6lbs) prefers soft ground and Parsons Legacy (10-9) likes a sound surface, backing both gives you a chance whatever the going description.

Rambling Minster burst on to the National scene with his victory in Haydock’s Blue Square Gold Cup and his sound jumping will surely stand him in good stead.

He stays well, his last two races have produced the form of his life and he is likely to carry only 10-6 so even at the age of 11 he must go on the short list at 16-1.

Big Fella Thanks (10-12) is another who is overpriced as he looked good when winning at Doncaster and was by no means disgraced when third to Nacarat in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton last time.

Although only a novice, Big Fella Thanks jumps really well, stays beyond three miles and likes a flat, left-handed track. He, too, is value at 16s.

Should Ruby Walsh, stable jockey for this one’s trainer Paul Nicholls, elect to ride him, his price will shorten dramatically, but I would imagine Ruby will be on board My Will despite rumours that he could switch to Big Fella Thanks or his father’s Southern Vic.

Character Building, meanwhile, has been cut to 14-1 following his easy victory in Cheltenham’s Kim Muir Chase.

He looks nicely weighted on that form with 10-3 and his third to Denman in last year’s Hennessy shows he is a capable horse who will enjoy the hustle and bustle of this unique race.

That said, jockey Jamie Codd was able to hold him up until the last possible moment at Cheltenham and executing such tactics on Aintree’s long run-in will not be easy whoever takes the mount.

To summarise, I believe one of the five I have mentioned will win and of the three “new” horses I have pinpointed, Rambling Minster and Big Fella Thanks are preferred to Character Building.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Rambling Minster, 16-1 (general), Big Fella Thanks, 16-1 (general).

Already recommended: Southern Vic 33-1; Parsons Legacy 40-1.