Wounded Tiger is a sitting duck

SPORTS BETTING:

ANYONE who enjoys watching top-flight golf looks forward to the Masters, the sport's first major of the year.

But throw in Tiger Woods' return following five months out of the game and you have a must-watch event.

I can hardly wait for this year's Masters to get under way tomorrow. The picturesque nature of the Augusta course and the stars who try to plot their way around it make for compelling viewing.

And the Masters is also an intriguing event from a punting point of view.

Favourites do win at Augusta – Woods and Phil Mickelson have enjoyed success at the Georgia course – but outsiders also have their day, among them Angel Cabrera, who was available at 100-1 before winning last season.

In trying to identify this year's winner, I reckon you have to take a view regarding Woods.
Can he possibly be at his best following the turmoil of his private life, the intense media spotlight which will be on him this weekend and, perhaps most importantly of all, the inevitable rustiness of his game away from competition?

If anyone can cope, Woods can, but he is not superhuman.

Yet some bookmakers are frightened to offer punters a realistic price. Some go 4-1, so well done to Ladbrokes for taking a chance at 6-1.

They deserve custom for taking a stance and if you are inclined to gamble on a fairy-tale comeback for Tiger, then snap up the best odds on offer.

My view is that Woods will have too much to cope with and I am firmly against him.

I also feel the same about Mickelson (14-1), who is either brilliant or woeful - sometimes in the same round - as he was on closing day in last weekend's Houston Open.

If, like me, you are prepared to take on the top two, then there is much value to be had.

I have championed Ernie Els in recent weeks and although the 22-1 I suggested some weeks ago has long gone, the current 16-1 is perfectly fair.

Winner of successive US Tour events before finishing tied for 44th in Houston, I suspect Els would have been quite happy to play the last couple of rounds of that event away from the glare of publicity and free of pressure.

And a final round three-under-par 69 was one of the better efforts on Sunday, so his form is still there and he must be full of confidence going to Augusta despite an iffy record there in recent years.

Next in the betting come Padraig Harrington (20-1), Lee Westwood (22-1), Retief Goosen (25-1), Steve Stricker (30-1) and Paul Casey (33-1).

Each have decent claims, but from what I have seen in recent weeks they have been unable to strike for glory after establishing good positions in tournaments.

Recent World Matchplay champion Ian Poulter looks a major winner-in-waiting and, after finishing joint 20th last year, is interesting at 40-1, while Sunday's winner Anthony Kim will not lack for confidence and will have his backers at the same price.

It is inconceivable that the precocious Rory McIlroy could drift to his current odds of 55-1, but you could also argue the same about Sergio Garcia (80-1), Open champion Stewart Cink (100-1), Luke Donald (110-1) and Adam Scott (120-1).

But they are those prices for a reason – lack of recent form – and I have ruled them out on that basis along with reigning champion Cabrera (80-1) and Steve Flesch, who is an amazing price at 275-1 when you consider he has finished tied for fifth and sixth in the last two Masters.

Five missed cuts and no top-25 finish in eight starts this year tell their own story for the latter.

I was tempted by Poulter and fellow 40-1 shot Jim Furyk, but to back up our Els bet I have selected Camilo Villegas and Hunter Mahan.

Villegas won last month's Honda Classic in Florida by five shots, having played well in the World Matchplay in Arizona, and clearly handles Augusta well following his tied 13th place last year.

He is not afraid to win and is unlikely to choke down the stretch on Sunday if in contention.

Mahan is a less obvious selection, but he is the sort of feisty player you want on your side.

Tied for 10th in 2009, he also seems to like Augusta and showed glimpses of an imminent return to form when tied for 25th behind Els at Bay Hill a fortnight ago.


RECOMMENDATIONS (all each-way, first five):

Ernie Els, 16-1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill).

Camilo Villegas 40-1 (general).

Hunter Mahan 66-1 (totesport).

TV: BBC 2 all four nights.