Strauss can cling on to famous urn

SPRTBET ASHES SPECIAL: THE speculation and propaganda is almost over . . . now it’s time for action to speak louder than words.

Brisbane is the venue for the opening Ashes salvo tonight and, if you believe the vibes emanating from Down Under, then England’s cricketers have a great chance of beating Australia in their own back yard.

It’s 24 years since England last won an Ashes series in Australia and anyone who thinks that our lads are about to have it easy against an under-strength Aussie outfit is sadly deluded.

But there are genuine reasons for optimism behind Andrew Strauss’s team.

England have a solid and settled side who have enjoyed a faultess preparation. They are by no means the best outfit in world cricket, but they might not need to be in order to lift the famous urn.

The reason for that is the continuing decline of Australia.

This column did predict an Aussie meltdown following the retirement of legends Glenn McGrath, Shane Warne and Adam Gilchrist, along with the likes of Matt Hayden and Justin Langer.

All of these stars were in action when England were thumped 5-0 in 2007. Don’t expect a repeat of this scoreline, or anything approaching it.

Australia are extremely difficult to overcome at home, but South Africa did crack the case two years ago and the Baggy Greens have hardly improved since that reverse.

Indeed, Australia go into this series on the back of three Test defeats in a row – a sequence unheard of in recent years.

Don’t write off the Aussies, though. They never go down without a fight and, with Ricky Ponting probably captaining the side for the last time against England, you can be sure every member of their team will be busting a gut to see off the old enemy.

But even that may not be enough. I expect England, 2-1 winners at home last year, to retain the Ashes – possibly following a thrilling final-Test victory in Sydney.

Let battle commence.




Bell, Colly to lift middle order
TOP English batsman (best odds): 4-1 Andrew Strauss, 9-2 Kevin Pietersen; 5-1 Jonathan Trott; 6-1 Ian Bell; 13-2 Alastair Cook; 8-1 Paul Collingwood; 14-1 Matt Prior.

It is no surprise to see Strauss and Pietersen head the market.

They are clearly England’s most likely matchwinners, but neither represents value.

As opener – and this applies to Cook and perhaps number three Trott – Strauss will be subjected to the swinging Kookaburra ball.

Pietersen has a problem with left-arm spinners and his form in the last 18 months has hardly been brilliant.

So I reckon England might be reliant on their middle and lower order and that brings Collingwood and Bell firmly into focus.

Colly hit 433 runs at an average of over 48 on his last tour of Australia, while the gifted Bell is in such superb form that I can see him scoring a bundle of runs in his favoured position of number six when the ball has stopped moving around.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Ian Bell, 6-1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power); Paul Collingwood, 8-1 (Boylesports, Stan James).



Top Australian batsman:
4-1 Ricky Ponting, Shane Watson, Simon Katich; 6-1 Mike Hussey; 7-1 Michael Clarke; 12-1 Marcus North; 16-1 Brad Haddin.

This is a straightforward one.

He might have issues with the short ball, but Ponting is so superior to the rest that he has to be backed at such generous odds.

Watson is vulnerable outside his off stump, Katich has had little cricket following injury, Hussey and North’s places are under threat and Clarke has a persistent back injury.

Recommendation: Ricky Ponting, 4-1 (William Hill).



Top England bowler: 5-4 Graeme Swann; 4-1 Stuart Broad; 9-2 Jimmy Anderson; 6-1 Steve Finn.

If England are to win the Ashes, then spin king Swann has to be successful.

I expect him to be our leading wicket-taker, but his odds don’t factor in the risk of injury.

Top Australian bowler: 11-4 Mitchell Johnson; 100-30 Ben Hilfenhaus; 5-1 Peter Siddle; 8-1 Doug Bollinger; 9-1 Xavier Doherty.

Johnson is a worthy favourite, but he can blow hot and cold, so the only value I can see in this market is 5-1 about the abrasive Siddle. He may not be the most subtle of performers but he is big and strong and will run in to bowl all day long.



Toss could be vital in series opener
First Test: 23-20 Australia; 11-5 England; 100-30 draw.

AUSTRALIA have not lost a Test at Brisbane since 1988, a period spanning 21 matches.

That’s a pretty compelling record so, at first glance, it is easy to see why Australia are 13-10 favourites to win the first match of the series.

However, in taking that statistic into account, you also have to factor in the immense quality of the Australian side during that period.

And, with showers and heavy cloud on the cards for the next few days at the Gabba, this could be a bowlers’ Test match and one which could hinge on the flick of a coin.

Australia are reluctant to do anything other than bat given the choice, but I suspect whoever wins the toss tonight will insert the opposition in a bid to gain the upper hand.

Should England do that and take their chances, the 11-5 about victory for our boys could look pretty good come the weekend.