Kauto the King George value

Four-times winner simply too big at 4-1

THEY will need a new roof at Kempton Park should Kauto Star achieve the unthinkable on Boxing Day.

With four King George VI Chases – the same record as the great Desert Orchid – on his CV, Kauto Star really ought to be in a field enjoying an honourable retirement.

But jump racing’s greatest warrior refuses to fade into obscurity and a resounding victory over Long Run at Haydock last month offers hope and even expectation that the great horse can do it again on Monday. The bookmakers disagree and you can see their point.

Kauto Star was primed to run for his life in Haydock’s Betfair Chase and it showed during the race.

Jumping superbly and travelling like a dream under Ruby Walsh, the dual Gold Cup winner then dug deep when tackled by Long Run in the home straight.

Showing class and guts in equal measure, Kauto Star pulled away to win by eight lengths.

He would not have blown out a candle in the winner’s enclosure – testimony to trainer Paul Nicholls’ assertion that he was as fit as a flea.

Long Run, on the other hand, was wheezing profusely, a sure sign that he would derive great benefit from the race. So which horse will win steeplechasing’s mid-season highlight?

The odds-layers do not let their hearts rule their heads and make Long Run 5-4 favourite to prevail. Kauto Star is 4-1.

If someone placed a gun to my head and said I had to pick the most likely winner, then I would go for Long Run. But as a punter who always goes for value in the search for long-term profit, it has to be Kauto at these prices.

You can back him each-way at his current odds – surely he will not finish out of the first three – and that, in racing parlance, is a bet to nothing.

Of the others, I can’t have Master Minded as I think he will fall in a heap once his stamina starts to ebb early in the home straight, while Captain Chris (suspect stamina), Somersby (professional loser) and Golan Way (not good enough) are readily passed over.

Diamond Harry, with Barry Geraghty in the saddle, is no forlorn hope at 16-1, while Nacarat’s price is an insulting 50-1. On a track he loves, the grey could easily run into a place.

That said, this should be between the big two. I make it 60-40 in favour of Long Run, but at the current odds value-seekers simply have to be with Kauto Star.

Other fancies on a brilliant Kempton card are Rock On Ruby in the Christmas Hurdle and Bobs Worth in the Feltham Novices’ Chase.

The former, an improving young hurdler whom I highlighted yesterday, won a decent handicap under top weight at Newbury last time and is heading for the top. And Bobs Worth could be a value bet given the presence of Grands Crus and Silvianaco Conti.

Both are excellent young chasers, but Bobs Worth is a professional winner who does just enough to

prevail. I can see him wearing down the other two up the straight. At Wetherby, Always Right – a

rising star in the North – can land the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase. James Reveley rides him rather than Diamond Harry in the King George and that is a huge tip in

itself.